Aotearoa Summary. 22 January 2021 - 1 February 2021
The Okataina quake swarm came with the spaceweather and one of many volcanos around the world which were either erupting or showing increased tremor. The Okataina quake swarm doesn't indicate that the volcano is about to erupt. Okataina is a large caldera and will give plenty of warning of any eruption just like Ruapehu and White Island. Quakes came near to most risk locations with Bay of Plenty, Fiordland and Taranaki Bight the hotspots. Spaceweather and quakes faded away for several days following the Okataina swarm. A new quake period has begun 2 February, a forecast will be posted very soon. 22 January. Offshore Bligh Sound 5.0 2.51am South of Wanganui 4.2 8.02am Cape Campbell 3.7 11.18pm 23 January. South of Kermadecs 5.6 5.23am 24 January. Westsouthwest of Auckland Island 5.8 6.47pm 25 January. 25km NE Farewell Spit 4.4 2.28am Okataina 4.5 7.57am +sequence. 5km N. Tarawera 5.2 8.12am USGS, EMSC. (Geonet 4.9) 15km NW Whakatane 4.1 9.26am 25 January. 25km NE Farewell Spit 4.4 2.28am Okataina 4.5 7.57am +sequence. 5km N. Tarawera 5.2 8.12am USGS, EMSC. (Geonet 4.9) 15km NW Whakatane 4.1 9.26am 27 January. 40km North of Te Kaha 4.0 8.09pm 28 January. 40km Northeast of White Island 4.5 12.11am Update. 28 January 11.30am 27 January. 40km North of Te Kaha 4.0 8.09pm 28 January. 40km Northeast of White Island 4.5 12.11am Quakes continue offshore Bay of Plenty. The Okataina quake swarm continues to ease. No action in Mag 5 risk location Fiordland. Solar wind, the driver of quakes and eruptions, continues to slowly ease today as it moves toward background levels. Pacific quakes are mostly quiet, all the quake action came early in the period with the double Mag 7 quakes. Local quakes are likely to follow the Pacific trend and become increasingly infrequent. The forecast period is extended to 28 January. Quakes are likely to be infrequent, high magnitude in Fiordland remains possible. Update. 27 January 9.15am 27 January. NW Levin 4.3 6.29am Local quakes were quiet on 26 January despite geomagnetic Kp5 storming. The NW Levin 4.3 was close to the Kapiti risk location from a light base of Taranaki Bight risk locations...not adding the popular North of D'Urville Island risk location was a forecasting mistake. Solar wind is now beginning to decline and quakes will become less frequent in the next days. The forecast period is extended to 27 January. The Okataina quake swarm has stabilised and residual small quakes seem likely there for several days. Fiordland remains Mag 5 risk. Update. 25 January 10.30pm 25 January. 25km NE Farewell Spit 4.4 2.28am Okataina 4.5 7.57am +sequence. 5km N. Tarawera 5.2 8.12am USGS, EMSC. (Geonet 4.9) 15km NW Whakatane 4.1 9.26am Local quakes are very busy today in Bay of Plenty and Taranaki Bight. An Okataina quake swarm was described by locals as big and long. Spaceweather forecasted for late 25 January is here tonight. Okataina quakes eased this afternoon but are likely to increase in frequency tonight with the new spaceweather, remaining Mag 4. Fiordland remains Mag 5 risk on 26 January. Update. 25 January 12.00am 22 January. Offshore Bligh Sound 5.0 2.51am South of Wanganui 4.2 8.02am Cape Campbell 3.7 11.18pm 23 January. South of Kermadecs 5.6 5.23am 24 January. Westsouthwest of Auckland Island 5.8 6.47pm A major Pacific quake period has unfolded from some very moderate spaceweather. New Zealand has been very busy during the period with big quakes both north and south. Biggest onshore quakes came early with the on cue arrival of spaceweather. New spaceweather is due late 25 January and may bring another burst of quakes. The forecast period is extended to 26 January. Snares Islands, Southern Fiordland are added to Mag 5 risk locations. Haast, Kahurangi, Murchison, St Arnaud are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Possibility Mag 3 New Brighton, Sumner, Rolleston. Possibility Mag 6 Fiordland. Confidence=low. Forecast. 22 January 2021. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Snares Islands, Fiordland, Cape Campbell, Masterton, Eketahuna, Kapiti, Gisborne, East Cape, Te Kaha. Volcanos quiet. The period may build slowly to a moderate peak on 26 January. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
