Pacific Summary. 22 January 2021 - 1 February 2021
2020 was a year of few Mag 7 quakes and 2021 is likely to be the same. The very long December 2020-January 2021 volcanic period may continue into February. A very long list of eruptions marks the period although no eruption is large. Most of the action came early in the period, following the arrival of moderate spaceweather. Quakes faded out quickly as spaceweather faded. Eruptions continued longer, following the trend for eruptions to follow quakes during forecast periods. Despite the increasing number of active volcanos, the strength of eruptions is only moderate. Volcanic activity appeared to be stronger during the last period of low solar activity 2 centuries ago in the Dalton Minimum Period 1790-1830. Time will tell if the very long volcanic period in 2021 will follow the Dalton Minimum Period trend and continue through the next aurora season due in March 2021 and beyond. Strong sunspot activity from 29 November 2020 marked the beginning of the present volcanic period... Will new sunspots due with the March 2021 aurora season drive a long term continuation of eruptions or will volcanos fizz out? 22 January. North Molucca Sea 7.0 1.23am Eruption Stromboli, Pacaya, Reventador, Raung, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Suwanosejima, Kilauea. 23 January. West of New Britain 5.7, 5.5 +sequence 7.51pm 24 January. South Shetland Islands 7.0 12.36pm Inland Valparaiso 5.8 1.07pm 25 January. Eruption Sangay, Fuego, Merapi, Etna, Ebeko, Karangetang. Update. 25 January 10.30pm Pacific quakes and eruptions were quiet today. Spaceweather eased overnight but has picked up again this afternoon on cue. Activity is likely to increase again on 26 January. New Britain is higher risk location. Update. 25 January 12.00am 22 January. North Molucca Sea 7.0 1.23am Eruption Stromboli, Pacaya, Reventador, Raung, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Suwanosejima, Kilauea. 23 January. West of New Britain 5.7, 5.5 +sequence 7.51pm 24 January. South Shetland Islands 7.0 12.36pm Inland Valparaiso 5.8 1.07pm Westsouthwest of Auckland Island 5.8 6.47pm A double Mag 7 quake period is unfolding in the Pacific along with several new eruptions. Mag 7 is rare at Solar Minimum, the last Mag 7 was the Izmir 7.0 on 30 October 2020. The Molucca Sea 7.0 was remote and caused no damage or tsunami. This area and several other nearby regions were chased hard in the previous forecast period. The forecasters decided to drop the area as a risk location in this forecast and very frustratingly it goes Mag 7....Murphys Law. The South Shetland Islands 7.0 is remote and came after a rare extended sequence lasting a few months died away. South Shetland Islands may be a precursor for Antarctica volcanic action later on. New eruptions at Reventador, Stromboli, Raung add to a long list of ongoing eruptions. New spaceweather due late on 25 January may bring more quakes and eruptions. The forecast period is extended to 26 January. Tonga, Western New Britain, Eastern Papua New Guinea, Valparaiso, Coquimbo are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Manam is added to volcanos. Forecast. 22 January 2021. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Vanuatu, Bougainville, New Ireland, Eastern New Britain, Southern Banda Sea, Timor, Central Kuril Islands, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Southern Peru, Atacama, Valdivia. Volcanic activity may increase. Kilauea, Etna, Lewotolo, Merapi, Semeru, Sinabung, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Sarychev, Kliuchevskoi, Pacaya, Fuego. The period is likely to build slowly over several days. Eruptions are likely to dominate the period. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
