Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 2 February 2021 - 12 February 2021

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The forecast chased quakes along North Island East Coast with some success, although Mag 5 risk wasn't justified in the end.
Shifting the forecast focus to Taranaki Bight from 7 February was justified.
Overall location success was very good during the period although timing success became slightly ropey with the Taranaki 4.9 coming after the forecast period had ended.
3 February.
Southeast of Haast 3.8 4.43am
4 February.
Northeast of Mahia Peninsula 4.6 6.57am USGS, EMSC (Geonet 4.2)
5 February.
Pongaroa 3.6 6.51pm
12 February.
South of Taranaki 4.9 4.54pm (4.5 USGS, EMSC)

Update. 12 February 10.30pm
12 February.
South of Taranaki 4.9 4.54pm (4.5 USGS, EMSC)
The forecast period has ended but the casual forecast rule that quakes after the period ends are more likely in risk locations from that period holds again.
The 7 February addition of South of Taranaki to risk locations is justified.

Update. 9 February 9.00pm
Local quakes have gone quiet along with the rest of the Pacific.
Spaceweather is fading away.
The period has probably ended in New Zealand but may go another day near the Equator.
Local quakes, if any, are more likely in risk locations from the period, including Kapiti.

Update. 7 February 12.30pm
5 February.
Pongaroa 3.6 6.51pm
Quakes have become infrequent as spaceweather faded last days.
Biggest local quake Pongaroa 3.6 is in the higher risk East Coast North Island zone.
New spaceweather forecasted for today has arrived this morning.
Local quakes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency today and tomorrow.
South of Taranaki, St Arnaud are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 5 Wairarapa. Confidence=low.

Update. 5 February 11.30am
4 February.
Northeast of Mahia Peninsula 4.6 6.57am USGS, EMSC (Geonet 4.2)
Spaceweather is fading and quakes are becoming infrequent ahead of a 7 February pickup.
The outlook for North Island East Coast as higher risk is justified.
Geonet recorded Mag 4.2...usually they record about Mag 0.2 above USGS and EMSC.
The forecast period is extended to 5 February.
Quakes are likely to remain infrequent.

Update. 4 February 12.00am
3 February.
Southeast of Haast 3.8 4.43am
Spaceweather has arrived on cue, local quakes have become very busy but low magnitude.
Good location success near Haast from the biggest quake so far.
Spaceweather looks set to ease slightly next two days ahead of another peak on 7 February.
The forecast period is extended to 4 February.
Quakes are likely to become less frequent ahead of the 7 February pickup.
SW Pacific is very active today at Southern Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga so quakes may extend south to New Zealand later in the period.
East Coast North Island is higher risk.

Forecast. 2-3 February 2021.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest of Snares Islands, Puysegur Point, Doubtful Sound, NW Te Anau, Bligh Sound, Olivine Ranges, Pyke River, Cascade River, Lower Arawhata River, South of Haast, Seaward Kaikouras, Cape Campbell, Northwest of Cape Campbell, North of D'Urville Island, South of Wanganui, Masterton, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Porangahau, Waipukurau, Hastings, Napier, Mahia, East Cape, Te Kaha, Whakatane, Okataina, Kaingaroa, Atiamuri, Taupo, Southeast of Taupo.
Volcanos quiet.
Spaceweather forecasted to arrive late 1 February has arrived late and is here as this forecast is posted.