Pacific Summary. 3 February 2021 - 15 February 2021
New Britain risk location received multiple Mag 6 quakes, one coming with the Hunter Island 7.7 The 7 February Mindanao 6.0 was very close to the ambitious Offshore Mindanao risk location. Both Mag 7 quakes came as quake clusters. Volcanos remain in steady eruption and possibly slightly increasing. This is easily the longest volcanic period, 2 months, since observations began in 2012. A long term volcanic trend may be evolving in accordance with observations made during a previous period of very low solar activity, the Maunder Minimum Period 1790-1830. Eruptions are widespread but effusive at the moment. Eruptions may become explosive in March as new sunspots come up. Northern Hemisphere winter is now the coldest in a century, following a very large stratospheric warming event early January. USA winter was mild until about two weeks ago, then multiple snowfall and cold records in NE USA last week, followed this week by widespread cold records across the entire Midwest down into Texas. Mild spaceweather is arriving 16 February, followed by a stronger period 21 February. 3 February. West Chile Rise 6.7 6.23pm 5 February. Hunter Island 5.7 1.14am Eruption Sinabung, Raung, Kliuchevskoi, Sakurajima, Pacaya, Etna, Reventador, Kilauea. 7 February. Mindanao 6.0 5.22pm West Bismarck Sea 6.3 6.45pm 11 February. Hunter Island 6.0 1.24am; 6.1 + 6.1, 6.1 Offshore Southern Sumatra 6.2 1.52am Hunter Island 7.7 2.20am + 6.1, 6.1, 6.4, 5.9, 5.9 14 February. East of Honshu 7.1 3.07pm South of New Britain 6.0 4.33am Update. 11 February 2.30pm 11 February. Hunter Island 6.0 1.24am; 6.1 + 6.1, 6.1 Offshore Southern Sumatra 6.2 1.52am Hunter Island 7.7 2.20am + 6.1, 6.1, 6.4, 5.9, 5.9 Extending the Pacific forecast for another day is justified as a late quake burst arrives. The beginning and end of quake periods tend to be the most active parts...defining the end of the period the most challenging part for the forecasters. The Hunter Island 7.7 is the biggest global quake since the 22 July 2020 Offshore Alaskan Peninsula 7.8. Lowest solar activity in 200 years is bringing a low quake response overall with few Mag 7 quakes in the last year. Spaceweather has faded to near background levels today. Isolated, residual Pacific quakes are possible today. Kermadec Islands, Fiji, Chile, Nicaragua are higher risk locations. Update. 9 February 9.15pm 7 February. Mindanao 6.0 5.22pm West Bismarck Sea 6.3 6.45pm The arrival of spaceweather late on 6 February has created quakes very near to SW Pacific risk locations. The forecast focus on SW Pacific is justified. The onshore Mindanao 6.0 caused no damage and was frustratingly close to the ambitious Offshore Mindanao risk location. Bismarck Sea 6.3 followed soon after the Mindanao quake. Quakes then fell below Mag 6 for the next 2 days, biggest is New Britain 5.7. Eruptions continue at familiar volcanos as the two month volcanic period drags on towards the soon arriving March aurora season. The global volcanic period has been extensive but no big eruptions so far. Eruptions may increase in strength with some strong sunspot activity due in the next weeks. Spaceweather is fading, quakes are infrequent. A late quake remains possible. The forecast period is extended to 10 February. Northern Hemisphere winter is now historically long and cold...solar conditions are lowest in 200 years. Update. 7 February 12.30pm Pacific quakes are under Mag 6 during the middle part of the forecast period. Eruptions are ongoing at all forecasted volcanos. New spaceweather has arrived today on cue. A quake and eruption uptick is likely. The forecast period is extended to 8 February. Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Offshore Taiwan, Offshore Mindanao are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 5 February 11.00am 5 February. Hunter Island 5.7 1.14am Pacific quakes are largely quiet as spaceweather fades away and a new peak approaches on 7 February. Biggest quake at Hunter Island 5.7 followed action there yesterday and confirms SW Pacific as quake hotspot during the period. Eruptions at all forecasted volcanos are ongoing and moderate. Eruptions may increase in magnitude on 7 February. The North Pole stratospheric warming event beginning 5 January is now having a major effect on USA, Europe, Asia with record snowfalls and cold in the worst winter in 60 years. More extreme cold is forecasted in the next couple of weeks and could become the worst winter in a century. Lowest solar activity since the Dalton Minimum Period 1790-1830 is the driver of the cold weather and storms as the jetstreams migrate away from the Poles. Forecast. 4 February 2021. Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, South of Fiji, Fiji, Hunter Island, Northern Vanuatu, New Britain, Molucca Sea, Eastern Honshu, Northern Gulf of California, Southern Peru, Valparaiso, Coquimbo, Granada. Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos are likely to continue. Kilauea, Etna, Raung, Merapi, Semeru, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Kliuchevskoi, Pacaya, Fuego, Reventador, Sangay. Note. A forecast wasn't offered for 3 February, the beginning of the period (see Aotearoa Forecast). The West Chile Rise 6.7 occurred during this time. The quake is plotted on the map. A technique for forecasting mid ocean ridge quakes hasn't been developed yet. Quakes are likely to remain infrequent ahead of a peak on 7 February. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
