Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 16 February 2021 - 21 February 2021

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Late quakes in unforecasted risk locations slightly justified the low confidence forecast as the forecasters struggled to find obvious risk locations and figure out if the Hunter Island 7.7 would cause following action as far south as New Zealand.
In the end, big action was confined to Vanuatu, Fiji.
The Pauatahunui 4.5 was an aftershock to the 31 December Pauatahunui 4.5.
18 February.
Northwest Arm Te Anau 3.7 2.19am
20 February.
10km Northeast of Pauatahunui 4.5 6.15pm
20km South of Lake Sumner 4.3 8.33pm

Update. 19 February 12.00am
18 February.
Northwest Arm Te Anau 3.7 2.19am
Big quakes in the Vanuatu, Hunter Island region haven't come to New Zealand.
Biggest local quake in Fiordland.
Mild spaceweather driving the Vanuatu action arrived on cue and has faded again.
Local quakes are likely to remain absent or very infrequent ahead of new spaceweather due late 22 February.
Early signs of sunspot activity are showing as the March aurora season draws near.
Local quakes and global volcanos are likely to increase in frequency and strength with the upcoming solar storms.
Lowest solar activity in 200 years is driving a Northern Hemisphere weather catastrophe.
Major record breaking cold and snow laden storms are everywhere. USA, Canada, Ireland, Syria, Japan in just the last few days.
New Zealand is getting a short cold summer in most places, a windstorm blasting Picton with 140km/h gusts.
A few climate change experts say this weather is normal for climate change but most are unsurprisingly silent.
Lowest solar activity in 200 years is bringing climate conditions back to the same weather and solar conditions observed by English meteorologist Edward Maunder during the years 1790-1830 and after whom the Maunder Minimum Period is named.
A decent stratospheric volcanic eruption during the March-May aurora season from a solar flare will send global temperatures plummeting further.

Magnitude 4 risk locations are Tauranga, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Atiamuri, Te Kuiti, Taumarunui, Western Taranaki Bight, Waipukurau, Cape Campbell, Kekerengu, Kahurangi, Milford Sound, Pyke River, Olivine Range.
Conditions are unusual following the 11 February Hunter Island 7.7 and ongoing deep quakes South of Fiji.
Western risk locations are higher risk.
Forecast confidence = low.
The period may build up to a much stronger peak from 21 February.