Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 14 October 2014 - 15 October 2014

Todays Mag 6.2 quake SW of Fiordland may be a foreshock for another big quake in the same area, driving conditions have not yet arrived. EMSC and USGS are giving the magnitude as 5.4 which is very different to Geonet, they can't all be right. Note This forecast was posted on the Facebook link at 9pm, 13 October but has been added to the archive on 15 October... we forgot to post it here at the time. Summary. 14-15 October. (see Facebook link) 12 Oct. North of East Cape 4.7. 13 Oct. SW of Fiordland 5.7 USGS, EMSC, GEOFON. (6.2 Geonet). 14 Oct. North of East Cape 6.1 USGS (6.5 Geonet). Kermadecs 5.0, 5.2, 5.1. Nicaragua 7.3, Bardarbunga 5.0, 5.2. 15 Oct. Bardarbunga 5.1. 16 Oct. Dunedin 4.1. Magnitudes posted by Geonet were way out of line with major world Services. You choose. USGS is ours. This Service now only records Magnitude 5+ quakes at Bardarbunga. This forecast became complicated by the early arrival of the Fiordland quake and the late posting of the forecast. The forecasts can be posted 30 days or more in advance of events but late postings allow for that last look at what's coming. Regardless, the period went on as expected with the big Nicaragua rumble, East Cape and Kermadecs. Volcanoes were quiet, except Bardarbunga which is still huge. Weather went extreme during the period and today Himalayan rescuers are still looking for bodies in the snow. Thanks.