Aotearoa Summary Updated. 22 February 2021 - 1 March 2021
The 23 February North of Napier 4.3 was omitted from the earlier summary...Geonet recorded Mag 3.8 but the USGS, EMSC Mag 4.3 is preferred. A late burst of quakes have come after the forecast was dropped but meet the secondary forecast criteria that quakes after the forecast period ends are more likely in risk locations from that period. A new forecast for late 2 March is being processed. 23 February. 40km North of Napier 4.3 12.42am USGS, EMSC 28 February. Lake Taupo/5km West of Whanganui Bay 4.8 12.42am Milford Sound 4.3 3.41am Porangahau 3.9 12.59pm Summary. 27 February 11.54am Quakes came on cue with good location success. Confusion over the wide discrepancy for the magnitude of the Snares Islands quake. The USGS, EMSC, Geofon Mag 5.1 is preferred against the Geonet 5.7. Geonet is usually about 0.1-0.2 above the others with increasingly unreliable offshore data due to the configuration of their array. East Coast North Island risk locations were the only onshore locations to reach Mag 4 during the period. Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 during the period and local quakes tend to follow the Pacific trend which is heavily volcanic in 2021. A new forecast period begins late on 2 March. 23 February. Northwest of Snares Islands 5.1 USGS, EMSC, Geofon. (5.7 Geonet) 5.07pm 24 February. Porangahau 4.2 7.18pm 25 February. Hastings 4.3 6.35am Forecast. 22-23 February 2021. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, East Cape. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, NW Te Anau, Bligh Sound, Milford Sound, Haast, Upper Hunter River, Cape Campbell, St Arnaud, Eketahuna, Waipukurau, Hastings, Napier, Wairoa, Mahia, Tolaga Bay, Okataina, Tokoroa, Atiamuri. Volcanos quiet. Fiordland may be raised to Mag 5 later in the period. The forecast will not be updated until 24 February due to the Mt Tarndale fieldtrip. The forecast is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
