Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 3 March 2021 - 13 March 2021

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The biggest quakestorm in many years has unleashed itself on the Kermadec Trench.
Good timing and location success with the East of East Cape 7.3 although such a major quakestorm wasn't expected from the moderate solar wind driving the action.
The 2 September 2016 East of East Cape 7.1 brought volcanic heating at White Island and big quake action later in November at Kaikoura.
The 2021 quakestorm dwarfs the 2016 period.
Solar flares expected from 23 March 2021 seem likely to drive increasing volcanic and quake activity in New Zealand which may go to Mag 6.
Observations indicate that an eruption may already be underway somewhere along the Kermadec Ridge as this summary is posted.
The outlook for a Mag 6 aftershock at East Cape on 6 March was justified.
Quakes and spaceweather have settled back until 12 March when unforecasted spaceweather arrived, driving a brief period of quakes at risk location D"Urville Island.
Quakes after a forecast period has ended tend to be in risk locations from that period.
A Mag 5.9 quake east of Hunter Island came with the D"Urville Island and Fiordland quakes, making a very small SW Pacific quakestorm.
Quakes are returning to mainland New Zealand after going totally quiet for a few days.
A forecast for 15 March will be posted later.

4 March.
Kaikoura 4.0 3.48am
5 March.
140km East of East Cape 7.3 2.27am
6 March.
140km East of East Cape 6.3 1.16pm USGS, EMSC
12 March.
D"Urville Island 4.7 3.32pm
D"Urville Island 4.4 3.53pm
Inner Breaksea Sound 4.4 5.26pm USGS, EMSC. (Geonet 5.2)

Update. 7 March 1.00pm
6 March.
140km East of East Cape 6.3 1.16pm USGS, EMSC
The lunchtime arrival of spaceweather has coincided with the East of East Cape 6.3.
Solar wind is still present today but is weakening.
Quakes appear to be in an aftershock sequence at Offshore East Cape with an eerie dearth of mainland quakes.
Quakes are likely to become infrequent on 7-8 March at Offshore East Cape.
Isolated low magnitude mainland quakes are likely to gradually return.

Update. 6 March 12.00am
4 March.
Kaikoura 4.0 3.48am
5 March.
140km East of East Cape 7.3 2.27am
Moderate spaceweather arrived on cue late on 2 March with a sluggish early response.
A Southwest Pacific quakestorm arrived early on 5 March.
Quakes have stayed out at sea today but new spaceweather due early 6 March is likely to create a quake pickup with a possible onshore migration.
Risk locations haven't changed much so the original forecast map is retained.
Mag 6 aftershock East of East Cape is possible.
Upper Awatere River is added to Mag 5 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 5 East Coast North Island.
Volcanos quiet.
Volcanic heating at White Island may occur from 25 March.

Forecast. 3 March 2021.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Snares Islands, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, St Arnaud, Mana, Northwest of D"Urville Island, Eketahuna, Waipukurau, Hastings, Napier, Tokomaru Bay, East Cape, Te Kaha.