Pacific Forecast Updated. 3 March 2021 - 10 March 2021
6 March. Raoul Island 6.2 3.24am 140km East of East Cape 6.3 1.16pm Raoul Island 6.1 8.16pm Eruption San Cristobal, Veniaminof, Sangay, Raung. Aftershock quakes have arrived with the midday 6 March spaceweather. Pacific quakes are otherwise quiet. Eruptions continue to gather pace. New eruptions at San Cristobal and Sangay have deposited ash on nearby areas. Etna has had yet another paroxysm and looks to be heading for paroxysm number 11. Vulcanologists at Reykjanes Peninsula have decided an eruption is becoming likely following an increase in quakes. Spaceweather has now eased to background level and quakes fading in response. Raoul Island has dropped back to occasional Mag 5 and East Cape to Mag 4. The February outlook for solar flare action from 23 March approximately is still valid. Any solar flares are likely to create strong quakes or eruptions. Kermadec Islands and New Zealand are likely to be part of any action. Raoul Island may erupt during this time and volcanic heating at White Island is possible. Reykjanes Peninsula volcano Fagradalsfjall may erupt after 23 March. Tremor may increase at Mauna Loa from 23 March. Cyclone Niran powered up to Cat 4 during the period, passing just south of New Caledonia before rapidly fading as it headed southeast into cooler water. Northern Hemisphere winter is one of the most severe in a century and another burst of cold is due any day. Mild spaceweather is due late 14 March. Update. 6 March 12.00am 3 March. Central Greece 6.3 11.16pm Eruption Etna, Pacaya, Semeru, Kilauea, Kliuchevskoi, Suwanosejima. 5 March. 140km East of East Cape 7.3 2.27am Hunter Island 5.6 3.10am Vanuatu/South of Sola 6.1 5.53am 40km South of Raoul Island 7.4 6.41am Central Greece 5.7 7.38am 150km Southeast of Raoul Island 8.1 8.28am The period began on cue with the arrival of spaceweather late on 2 March, the Greece 6.3 followed and a swag of ever increasing eruptions. Etna had its 9th paroxysm and Pacaya had a small paroxysm. Pacific stayed quiet until 5 March when the biggest quake sequence in years unfolded as a major Southwest Pacific quakestorm, lasting 6 hours. Excellent location success at Vanuatu and Kermadecs from a very low number of Pacific risk locations. Spaceweather has steadily eased today ahead of new spaceweather due early 6 March. Risk locations haven't changed much for 6 March so the two periods are blended into one bigger period. Kermadec Islands and East of East Cape may receive Mag 6 aftershocks. Guadalcanal, New Britain, Central Sumatra, Central Kuril Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Possibility Mag 7. Confidence =low. Cyclone Niran has powered up to Cat 4 during the period as it passes New Caledonia and may stay powered up with the new spaceweather. The Raoul Island 8.1 is the biggest world quake since the 19 August 2018 Fiji 8.2 and easily the biggest sequence observed at this Service. The combination of the 3 month long ever increasing volcanic period and today's big quakestorm just ahead of some possible strong solar flare activity and supermoons in late March and April will make for some interesting forecasting in 2021. Forecast. 3 March 2021. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Fiji, Northern Vanuatu, Southwest of Sumatra, Taiwan, Andreanof Islands, Offshore Oregon, Atacama. Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos are likely to continue. Etna, Kilauea, Semeru, Raung, Merapi, Sinabung, Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi, Pacaya. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
