Aotearoa Summary Updated. 25 March 2021 - 23 April 2021
21 April. Northern Olivines 4.6 5.50pm 22 April. Northern Olivines 4.1 8.07pm USGS, EMSC. 4.9 Geonet. The forecast map has become a summary map ahead of a new forecast period beginning 24 April. The forecast period had ended on 21 April but the casual rule that quakes are more likely in risk locations after a forecast period ends has held again. The 28 March addition of Olivine Ranges to risk locations is partly justified. Local quakes since 17 April are otherwise well below Mag 4. Fluctuating spaceweather during the period made for difficult forecast timing although location success was good. Southwest Pacific was the hotspot during the period and Mag 6 came to East of East Cape. A weak supermoon from 28 March gave some modulation at Bligh Sound and probably made the busy early part of the period busier. Fiordland and Rotorua/Bay of Plenty/Volcanic Plateau were local hotspots during the period and likely to remain hotspots. A small quake burst late 10 April came with a powerful Pacific Mag 6 burst. Spaceweather and quakes slowly faded from 11 April. A new period is due to slowly build from 20 April. Volcanic Plateau/Bay of Plenty could be active including some heating at Ruapehu. 25 March. East of East Cape 4.8 10.31pm 26 March. Offshore Doubtful Sound 4.0 3.17am Kinloch 4.1 4.26am East of East Cape 4.5 1.14pm 10km SSW of Te Puke 4.4 1.35pm USGS, EMSC (Geonet 3.8) 27 March. East of East Cape 4.7 4.59pm East of East Cape 4.1 10.56pm 30 March. Offshore Bligh Sound 4.4 6.16pm. Low tide 7.34pm Offshore Bligh Sound 3.9 6.33pm 2 April. East of East Cape 4.7 8.05pm 5 April. Southeast of Masterton 3.9 6.58am East of East Cape 4.1 9.14am Northern Haast Range 4.6 1.23pm Lyttelton 3.2 5.52pm East of East Cape 6.1 7.37pm 6 April. Southwest of Taumarunui 3.9 11.42am EMSC 10km Northeast of Lake Rotoiti 3.9 12.36pm EMSC 8 April. Bligh Sound 4.1 5.10am 9 April. 45km Northwest of Wanganui 4.2 4.55pm 10 April. Cook Strait 4.1 10.58pm 11 April. East of East Cape 4.9 2.40am 17 April. George Sound 4.7 10.57am EMSC (4.4 USGS, 5.1 Geonet) East of East Cape 4.8 3.09pm Update. 11 April 11.00pm 9 April. 45km Northwest of Wanganui 4.2 4.55pm 10 April. Cook Strait 4.1 10.58pm 11 April. East of East Cape 4.9 2.40am Spaceweather became weak on 10 April but was well connected magnetically. The beginning and end of quake periods tend to be the most active parts. Tricky spaceweather conditions during the period have made the end of the period hard to forecast. The period has dragged on and now with a powerful end. A late burst of quakes in non risk locations have slightly spoilt the map which looked reasonable for location success. Volcanic Plateau, Bay of Plenty risk locations are spread too thinly given the global volcanic activity and Kermadec Ridge activity. The region seems likely to remain active for several weeks at least. The Cook Strait 4.1 and East of East Cape 4.9 were close in time and part of a 6 hour Pacific Mag 6 spell. Spaceweather has faded away tonight. New solar wind conditions are due late on 14 April. Update. 9 April 1.00pm 6 April. Southwest of Taumarunui 3.9 11.42am EMSC 10km Northeast of Lake Rotoiti 3.9 12.36pm EMSC 8 April. Bligh Sound 4.1 5.10am The quake period has probably ended. Spaceweather is fading fast for several days. Twin quakes a few minutes apart on 6 April marked a busy period on the Volcanic Plateau and Bay of Plenty. Volcanic regions around the world are becoming more active in 2021 and New Zealand is no exception. The busy Rotorua period follows an Okataina quake swarm and the 23 March Kawerau 5.0. Quake activity in the Rotorua region seems likely to continue in 2021 although no eruption activity on the immediate horizon. Quakes, if any, are more likely in risk locations during the next days. Update. 5 April 10.30pm 2 April. East of East Cape 4.7 8.05pm 5 April. Southeast of Masterton 3.9 6.58am East of East Cape 4.1 9.14am Northern Haast Range 4.6 1.23pm Lyttelton 3.2 5.52pm East of East Cape 6.1 7.37pm Forecast timing has become slightly ropey with the fluctuating spaceweather and also no forecast update for 2 days. Regardless, daily Pacific Mag 6 quakes during the period now include New Zealand. Tonights East of East Cape 6.1 follows a busy day for local quakes. The Northern Haast Range 4.6 was close to the Northern Olivine Range risk location, separated only by the Arawhata River. The Lyttelton 3.2 was felt across Christchurch and demonstrates how quakes tend to cluster in time. Stronger spaceweather has arrived today, driving the action. Spaceweather conditions are likely to remain moderate on 6-7 April as new coronal hole windstreams arrive. Risk locations haven't changed much during the period so the original map is retained. Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. Update. 1 April 12.00am 30 March. Offshore Bligh Sound 4.4 6.16pm. Low tide 7.34pm Offshore Bligh Sound 3.9 6.33pm Very patchy mild spaceweather continues on 30 March and very challenging forecast conditions. Conditions seem likely to fade away on 1 April but another small burst may arrive 2 April. Mild spaceweather may still drive quakes due to the modulating effect of the supermoon. Pacific quakes are largely quiet and local quakes are also mostly subdued. Good location success at Bligh Sound and near to low tide with weak supermoon modulation. Very isolated Mag 4 quakes seem possible next few days with any small spaceweather bursts. Higher risk locations are Fiordland, Rotorua, Onshore Bay of Plenty. Update. 28 March 4.30pm 26 March. 10km SSW of Te Puke 4.4 1.35pm USGS, EMSC (Geonet 3.8) 27 March. East of East Cape 4.7 4.59pm East of East Cape 4.1 10.56pm Volcanic Plateau, Rotorua is proving to be the hotspot during the period so far. Small quake swarms at Lake Taupo and Wairakei add to the picture. A very mild solar coronal hole windstream has arrived this morning, slightly later and much weaker than expected. Conditions may fluctuate over the next few days with brief periods of stronger spaceweather. A weak supermoon is here today and may modulate any stronger spaceweather. The forecast period is extended to 29 March. North of Taranaki, Olivine Ranges are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Taupo quake swarms may continue. Quakes may be modulated to low tide with the supermoon. Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. Update. 26 March 1.30pm 25 March. East of East Cape 4.8 10.31pm 26 March. Offshore Doubtful Sound 4.0 3.17am Kinloch 4.1 4.26am East of East Cape 4.5 1.14pm Mild spaceweather from a couple of small solar filament eruptions arrived on cue. Quakes responded late on 25 March and early 26 March. Perfect risk location success so far and limiting magnitude to Mag 4. Further mild filament eruptions are creating the same patchy spaceweather conditions on 26 March. Isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible on 26 March. A stronger solar coronal hole windstream is due very late 27 March. Forecast. 25 March 2021. Magnitude 5 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, NW of Snares Islands. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Bligh Sound, Murchison, Cape Campbell, D"Urville Island, South of Taranaki, Waipukurau, Hastings, Mahia, Gisborne, Tokomaru Bay, Tarawera, Atiamuri, Taupo. Volcanos quiet. Patchy spaceweather 25-26 March is due to increase from 27 March. Risk locations and magnitudes may increase from 27 March. Note. The 25 March 4.32am East of Hanmer 4.1 occurred before this forecast was posted. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
