Pacific Summary. 25 March 2021 - 19 April 2021
Southwest Pacific including New Zealand turned out to be the quake hotspot during the period and good risk location success despite low confidence timing. Great location success at infrequently forecasted Denali. Volcanos continued their relentless low level eruptions with new players added late in the period...eruptions tend to follow quakes. Piton de la Fournaise has gone into steady eruption. The two month long series of paroxysms at Etna have either slowed or stopped. A big eruption at La Soufriere follows four months of slow lava extrusion. The original vent at Geldingadalir has now morphed into a 1km fissure with several vents but apparently the lava volume is unchanged. The forecasted late March sunspot increase never happened. Steady coronal hole windstreams and some filament eruptions marked an increase in solar activity as the Sun slowly climbs away from the December 2019 Solar Minimum. The forecast for an increase in sunspot activity in late April could be more promising...sunspot activity is increasing again. A supermoon late in April could modulate tectonic activity upwards. A new forecast for 20 March is being processed. 25 March. North of Kermadec Islands/Louisville 5.5 4.57pm 1 April. Southeast of Raoul Island 6.5 10.56pm 2 April. South of Fiji 6.0 4.11am Eruption Etna. 3 April. East of South Sandwich Islands 6.6 2.16pm 4 April. Central Banda Sea 6.0 6.42am Eruption Karymsky 5 April. East of East Cape 6.1 7.37pm 6 April. Raoul Island 6.0 9.53pm East of Denali 5.5 5.10am 10 April. Offshore Southeast Java 6.0 7.00pm Celebes Sea 6.1 9.30pm Western Bismarck Sea 6.0 11.38pm Eruption La Soufriere, Piton de la Fournaise. 13 April. Eruption La Soufriere Update. 11 April 11.30pm 10 April. Offshore Southeast Java 6.0 7.00pm Celebes Sea 6.1 9.30pm Western Bismarck Sea 6.0 11.38pm Eruption La Soufriere, Piton de la Fournaise. A late burst of quakes and eruptions have come at the end of several days of tricky spaceweather conditions. Regardless, forecast hotspots Indonesia and SW Pacific have proven to be where the quakes happened. Good location success at Celebes Sea and Bismarck Sea. California has been very busy during the period but luckily no quakes bigger than the Los Angeles 4.0. A buildup may be underway in California over the next few weeks. Forecasted eruption risk Piton de la Fournaise hasn't made much news as all attention is focused on Soufriere. Soufriere has gone off after a 4 month effusive buildup stage. Ash covers the island and neighbouring islands. Nearby Pelee on Martinique is beginning to heat up and may follow Soufriere into eruption in the next months. The global volcanic period just seems to keep growing despite some very moderate spaceweather in March and April. Volcanos may pick up more if sunspot activity picks up in the next few weeks. A brief period of spaceweather is due late on 14 April. Update. 9 April 9.00pm 6 April. Raoul Island 6.0 9.53pm East of Denali 5.5 5.10am Spaceweather is fading away. The period is ending. Southwest Pacific is the hotspot during the period. Excellent location success at very infrequently forecasted risk location Denali although Magnitude is under Mag 6. An evacuation is underway on Caribbean island St. Vincent as Soufriere heats up. The four month effusive eruption is about to turn explosive. The historic cold Northern Hemisphere winter is turning to an historic cold spring as major cold spells take hold in Europe and Alaska. Update. 6 April 10.00am South of Valparaiso is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 5 April 10.00pm 3 April. East of South Sandwich Islands 6.6 2.16pm 4 April. Central Banda Sea 6.0 6.42am Eruption Karymsky 5 April. East of East Cape 6.1 7.37pm Patchy spaceweather has brought a daily Mag 6 Pacific quake. Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos continue. Spaceweather has picked up strongly tonight with the East of East Cape 6.1. Coronal hole windstream conditions are set to continue until 7 April at least. Pacific quakes are likely to continue and may increase. Risk locations haven't changed much during the period so the original map is retained. Southern California is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Mauna Loa is experiencing moderate quakes and tiltmeter is moving around as the volcano seems to be going into a period of unrest that may lead to an eruption in the next few weeks. Quake swarms at Taal are increasing and may lead to an eruption. Update. 2 April 4.00pm 1 April. Southeast of Raoul Island 6.5 10.56pm 2 April. South of Fiji 6.0 4.11am Eruption Etna. Patchy spaceweather during the period has slightly ruined timing success on the forecast with all the fluctuations. Mild spaceweather fluctuations seem likely to continue for a few days yet. Eruptions are ongoing at all active volcanos. Etna had its 17th paroxysm/fountaining since 16 February. Piton de la Fournaise has stopped expanding for now and may need some stronger spaceweather to inflate again. Pacific quakes have been largely subdued during the period. Southwest Pacific is the hotspot and likely to remain that way. The 600km deep South of Fiji 6.0 is possible precursor for more action in the region, including New Zealand. The forecast period is extended to 3 April. South of Vanuatu, Offshore Hokkaido, Denali, Gulf of California, Southern Peru are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Quakes are likely to be infrequent in response to the patchy mild spaceweather. The continuing low solar activity in 2021 as sunspots weaken again at the end of March is driving a continuation of the worst Northern Hemisphere winter in a century. A brief spring warm spell last week is followed by more winter weather in most places this week, damaging early spring growth as frosts kill the new buds. This weather brought crop failure, famine and disease during previous periods of low solar activity. Global weather in 2021 is following weather patterns from the Dalton Minimum Period 1790-1830 when sunspot activity was very low. Spring 2021 has in some places brought the wildly fluctuating spring weather that is typical of low solar activity, weakened polar vortices and big jetstream shifts....New Delhi had its hottest day since 1945 as a heatwave extends across Northern India and the Middle East...now look out for a big drenching to follow. Update. 28 March 3.30pm 25 March. North of Kermadec Islands/Louisville 5.5 4.57pm Eruption Fagradalsfjall, Sakurajima, Raung, Merapi, Sinabung, Veniaminof, Pacaya, Sangay, Reventador, Kilauea. Mild spaceweather from a weak solar filament eruption arrived a few hours later than forecasted. Pacific quakes became busier but stayed below Mag 6, the biggest quake on 25 March was a 600km deep Louisville 5.5 may be precursor for more action. Eruptions at familiar volcanos are ongoing with no sign of ending, more the opposite, eruptions are increasing. Piton de la Fournaise is rapidly expanding, vulcanologists have closed walking tracks on the volcano. Philippines volcano Taal is heating up and may erupt in the next weeks. Fagradalsfjall continues to erupt and has now filled a small valley. Vulcanologists say the first eruption at Reykjanes Penisula in nearly 900 years could go on for months or years. Several volcanos in Nicaragua are hot and multiple eruptions are possible as the global volcanic period just keeps growing. New spaceweather from a coronal hole windstream has arrived today and weaker than expected. The forecast period is extended to 29 March. Southeast of Okinawa is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Taal, Telica, Momotombo, Piton de la Fournaise are added to volcanos. Forecast. 25 March 2021. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Macquarie Island, South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, New Britain, Bismarck Sea, South Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Mindanao, Izu Islands, Southeast of Honshu, Atacama. Eruptions at familiar volcanos are likely to continue. Quakes are likely to increase from 27 March. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
