Aotearoa Summary. 24 April 2021 - 9 May 2021
Solar Cycle 25 is kicking to life very slowly with the mild solar flaring. Despite the outlook for mild volcanic action on the Kermadec Ridge the forecast failed to include Bay of Plenty or East Cape as Mag 4 risk locations, a forecast mistake. Regardless, local vulcanologists reported volcanic tremor at White Island on 29 April, justifying the 29 April outlook for some volcanic action. Additionally, Rarotonga SSAM graph shows strong volcanic tremor 27-29 April, indicating a possible undersea eruption in Tonga or less likely Kermadec Islands. Frustratingly but unsurprisingly, no sightings of any volcanic activity in Tonga...it's a big ocean. The forecast was dropped from 30 April as onshore quakes faded away and sunspots moved on. Active new sunspot AR2822 is flaring on the eastern horizon on 9 May and is an early sign for a late May solar and tectonic pickup...and a strong supermoon. 24 April. Northern Olivines 3.6 2.33am Southwest of George Sound 4.3 7.55pm 25 April. East of East Cape 4.0 12.22am 27 April. Matawai 3.9 7.48pm 28 April. 25km East of Napier 3.9 1.33am 28 April. Central Taranaki Bight 4.2 7.03pm 29 April. 25km NNE White Island 4.6 7.33am East of East Cape 5.4 3.58pm 2 May. North of East Cape 5.2 12.07pm 3 May. East of East Cape 4.7 5.29am 4 May. Lord River 4.1 11.55pm 7 May. 15km East of Hanmer Springs 4.0 11.13pm Update. 29 April 12.00pm 28 April. Central Taranaki Bight 4.2 7.03pm 29 April. 25km NNE White Island 4.6 7.33am Quakes continue at moderate level in New Zealand. The combination of mild spaceweather and modulating supermoon have kept quakes active. Spaceweather is now fading away along with a few active sunspots. Tremor is high on the Kermadecs Ridge, Tonga Ridge. An undersea eruption is possibly underway but unless visual sightings at the sea surface are made then an eruption can't be confirmed. Tonga seems more likely than Kermadecs for an undersea eruption with some big deep quakes during the forecast period...hopefully a sighting will be made. Two weeks ago local vulcanologists reported Ruapehu crater lake was 40C...no news since. Tremor is present at Ruapehu although not enough for an eruption right now. The forecast period is extended to 30 April. Quakes are likely to be infrequent. A new forecast period begins 1 May. Update. 28 April 12.30pm 27 April. Matawai 3.9 7.48pm 28 April. 25km East of Napier 3.9 1.33am Local quakes are mild as spaceweather weakens. Active sunspots 12816, 12820, 12821 are slowly moving on. Fortunately most of the geoeffective sunspot action occurred before the 27 April supermoon. Strong solar wind and supermoons are a bad combination... Small residual solar windstreams are possible in the next day and could be modulated by the supermoon. The forecast period is extended to 28 March. Quakes are likely to be infrequent. New spaceweather is due 1 May. Update. 26 April 11.30pm Local quakes are quiet. Spaceweather is mild, fluctuating as sunspot activity drives small filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and electron storms. Mild spaceweather may continue. Hopefully spaceweather will stay mild because the combination of strong spaceweather and supermoon has given dramatic quakes in the past. Conditions are too fickle to let the forecast drop yet. The forecast period is extended to 27 April. Quakes are likely to be infrequent and may be modulated to low tide. Update. 25 April 1.30pm 24 April. Northern Olivines 3.6 2.33am Southwest of George Sound 4.3 7.55pm 25 April. East of East Cape 4.0 12.22am A very brief period of solar wind from a coronal hole windstream arrived on cue and is followed by a very small coronal mass ejection shock as this forecast is updated. Solar conditions may fade away later today which is good news in a high risk forecast period. Very good risk location success at Fiordland and Olivine Range from a moderate local quake response. Weakening solar conditions over the next days means no tectonic effect from the 27 April supermoon...good news. Although tectonic effects may be small or non existent, weather may be disturbed by the passing of sunspot 2816 which has heated and ionised the upper atmosphere last few days along with the strong supermoon. The forecast period is extended to 25 April. Quakes are likely to become infrequent. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Northern Olivine Range, Western Lake Taupo. Magnitude 4 risk locations are George Sound, Kaikoura, Tapuaenuku, Cape Campbell, Southeast of Rotoiti, South of Wanganui, West of Ruapehu, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Hastings, Mahia, East of East Cape. Magnitude 3 risk locations are Rolleston, Kirwee. Volcanos quiet. Earth facing sunspot 2816 is active. An Xray and electron storm are underway and weak coronal mass ejections may give a small geomagnetic shock next day. A strong supermoon peaking 27 April may modulate quakes to low tide. Possibility Mag 6 later in the period. Confidence=low. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
