Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 24 April 2021 - 9 May 2021

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Southwest Pacific was again the quake hotspot with some good risk location success.
Quakes arrived early in the period with mild geomagnetic storming from some minor solar flaring as active sunspots AR2816 and AR2817 became Earth facing.
Eruptions continued at familiar volcanos. Sinabung, Merapi, Lewotolo, Semeru in Indonesia are all in low level near continuous eruption.
Etna has become quiet following several weeks of daily paroxysms.
The Fagradalsfjall eruption is ongoing with steady lava flow but only one crater active and pulsing. Lava fountains to 450 meters are recorded.
Piton de la Fournaise remains in low level eruption and seems to be following the global volcanic trend for long lasting mild eruptions.
Tremor is increasing at big Iceland volcano Hekla and an eruption could occur with some new sunspot activity.
Note. Ongoing eruptions mentioned above are no longer being added to the forecast...there are so many and they are very predictable.
New eruption risks will still be notified.
Sunspot activity faded from 30 April and the forecast was dropped.
New sunspot activity has begun from 9 April and the long term outlook for increasing sunspots and quakes in late May is gathering momentum.
A strong 26 May supermoon may coincide with the solar uptick.

24 April.
Tonga/West of Neiafu 6.5 12.23pm
26 April.
South of Fiji 6.4 10.28am
Eruption Etna.
27 April.
West Bismarck Sea 6.1 8.05pm, 5.7, 5.4, 5.5
28 April.
Northeastern India/Assam 6.0 2.21pm
29 April.
East of Raoul Island 5.9 6.50pm
1 May.
East of Honshu 6.8 1.27pm
8 May.
West of Macquarie Island 6.0 3.21am

Update. 29 April 12.30pm
27 April.
West Bismarck Sea 6.1 8.05pm, 5.7, 5.4, 5.5
28 April.
Northeastern India/Assam 6.0 2.21pm
Quakes have continued during the period.
Good location success at Bismarck Sea and a steady sequence.
The Assam 6.0 has apparently caused no casualties but major structural damage to large buildings.
Mild strombolian eruptions at Etna have resumed following a one month period of quiet.
Iceland vulcanologists report fountaining from one crater at Fagradalsfjall...but when one crater picks up another one nearby goes down so overall the lava flow is steady.
Eruptions at La Soufriere are steadily decreasing.
Spaceweather is fading today but the supermoon could still modulate any solar wind which shows up unexpectedly.
The forecast period is extended to 30 April.
New spaceweather is due very late 30 April.
A new forecast and map is being processed.

Update. 26 April 11.00pm
26 April.
South of Fiji 6.4 10.28am
Eruption Etna.
A second big deep quake in the Tonga region during the forecast period could be ominous for ongoing quakes or eruptions.
Spaceweather is fluctuating as sunspot activity creates Earth directed small filament eruptions, small coronal mass ejections and electron storms.
Fortunately the conditions are neither strong nor consistent because the combination of strong solar wind and supermoon can create big quakes.
Spaceweather is likely to continue at mild level.
The forecast period is extended to 27 April.
Northern Tonga is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
An undersea eruption is possible in Neiafu/Pangai region.
Pacific quakes are likely to be infrequent.

Update. 25 April 2.00pm
24 April.
Tonga/West of Neiafu 6.5 12.23pm
A brief period of solar wind arrived on cue and is followed today by a very mild solar shock following a small coronal mass ejection from active sunspot 2816.
Perfect quake location success at Neiafu.
Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos have continued.
Weakening solar conditions over the next days will negate any lunar modulation from the 27 April supermoon...although weather may be disturbed.
The forecast period is extended to 25 April.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent.

Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, South of Fiji, Neiafu, Guadalcanal, New Ireland, Bismarck Sea, New Britain, Northern Papua New Guinea, Southern Sumatra, Molucca Sea, Mindanao, South of Japan, Northern California, Central Peru, Titicaca, Atacama, Morocco.
Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos are likely to continue.
Eruptions may increase later in the period.
Active sunspot 2816 is Earth facing, firing Xrays, electrons and possible low level coronal mass ejection.
A strong supermoon on 27 April may modulate any solar wind.
The period is likely to be extended.