Forecast for 19 October 2014 - 23 October 2014

Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Northern Wairarapa. Quakes may begin in East Cape/ Bay of Plenty and move south later in the period. Global quake activity may increase near the end of the period. Global volcanoes have been relatively quiet the last few days. They may pick up again near the end or after the period. Watch out for Bardarbunga, Sinabung, Mayon, Copahue (Chile) Volcano confidence= low. Forecast Update, 20 October. 18 Oct. Kermadecs 4.9, south of Fiordland 4.0. 20 Oct. Fiordland 4.7 USGS. Fiordland is now added to the forecast locations. All areas are now raised to Magnitude 5+ risk. Summary. 17 Oct. Kermadecs 4.2, 4.6. 18 Oct. Kermadecs 4.9, south of Fiordland 4.0. 20 Oct. Fiordland 4.7 USGS, Bardarbunga 5.1. 21 Oct. SW of Fiordland 4.0, Bardarbunga 5.2. 22 Oct. Fiordland 4.5, 3.9, 3.8; Southern Alps 4.5. 24 Oct. South of Kermadecs 5.5 USGS. (5.9 Geonet). This forecast worked out well. Quakes began on cue on 18 Oct. just before midnight. A forecasting mistake, not to include Fiordland, was rectified with an update on 19 Oct. and justified when the area was struck by swarms. The expected early activity in the North Island didn't happen. The big 5.5 north of NZ came one hour after the end of the forecast period. Geonet gave widely differing magnitude and location to other world services for this quake. Global quake activity was curiously and ominously quiet, the forecasted location turned up nothing much. An exciting new data source is being trialled so global forecasts remain low confidence until timing issues are sorted out.
Volcano Summary. Volcanoes are all inflated as forecasted, several could blow soon. The Pacific is huge at the moment. Bardarbunga: Big quake pickup early in the period and continued massive river of lava. Mayon: Lava extrusion on 19 Oct. but no major eruption yet. Sinabung: Continuous eruptions and pyroclastic flows. Kilauea: The lava flow which began on 27 June during the first forecasted global volcanic phase, sped up on 20 Oct. Chiles-Cerro Negro de Mayasquer: A Mag 5.8 quake nearby is worrying the Colombian seismologists. Data is hard to get at the moment.

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