Aotearoa Summary. 17 May 2021 - 22 May 2021
Local and Pacific quakes responded only weakly to some weak solar filament eruptions early in the period. Solar coronal hole windstream conditions from 20 May were the source of the 22 May Mag 7 cluster. Local quakes have remained below Mag 4 but have become very busy with very strong background tremor. Indications are for more big Southwest Pacific action in the next days, including New Zealand. Sunspot AR2824 has suddenly powered up as it becomes Earth facing and has fired off some minor flares. The combination of strong solar wind and the 26 May supermoon and eclipse are high magnitude risk conditions. A new forecast is being processed. Porangahau 4.0 2.03am 20 May. Northeast of White Island 4.0 12.33pm Update. 20 May 11.00pm 20 May. Northeast of White Island 4.0 12.33pm Local quakes are quiet with weak geomagnetic conditions. The solar shocks from filament eruptions were feeble and quake response poor. Active sunspot AR2824 is moving around closer to an Earth facing position today where any flares will have a greater effect on Earth but has become quiet. The sunspot may become active again or may fade. Confidence is low. Time will tell. The outlook for a geomagnetic/auroral and quake pickup late on 19 May with the arrival of a coronal hole windstream had some timing issues. The pickup has happened tonight, a day later than expected. Volcanic tremor at White Island and Ruapehu has remained steady last days but may increase again. The forecast period is extended to 21 May. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Update. 19 May 12.00am 18 May. Porangahau 4.0 2.03am A weak coronal mass ejection from a solar filament on 13 May arrived on cue and was very briefly strong. Pacific and local quake response has been small. A coronal hole windstream is due late 19 May so conditions are likely to become elevated again. Additionally, a powerful new sunspot is appearing on the eastern solar horizon and will be the source of the forecasted late May solar and tectonic pickup, if it flares strongly. Local quakes are quiet but volcanic tremor is high and increasing. Vulcanologists may make announcements about White Island and Ruapehu soon. Southwest Pacific may become the hotspot next few days. The forecast period is extended to 19 May. Okataina is added to Mag 4 risk locations. Forecast. 17 May 2021. Magnitude 6 risk location is South of Kermadec Islands. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest of Snares Islands, Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Bligh Sound, Upper Rakaia River, Lord River, St Arnaud, Cape Campbell, Eketahuna, Waipukurau, Hastings, East of Napier, Mahia, Matawai, Tokomaru Bay, East Cape, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Taupo, West of Taupo. Volcanic tremor or degassing possible at White Island. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
