Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 17 May 2021 - 22 May 2021

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A Mag 7 quake period has unfolded along with a new eruption.
Very weak geomagnetic storm from solar filament eruptions made for patchy forecast conditions early in the period.
A coronal hole windstream from 20 May has brought a quake cluster on 22 May and good risk location success.
More strong solar conditions have set in on 22 May as active sunspot AR2824 has M1 flared as it becomes Earth facing.
The sunspot had gone quiet for a couple of days but has become active again.
The combination of solar wind, supermoon and lunar eclipse conditions on 26 May could produce some strong Pacific quake action.
Southwest Pacific, including New Zealand is higher risk.
A new forecast is being processed.

19 May.
Juan Fernandez Plate 6.7 12.42pm
21 May.
Eruption Nyiragongo
22 May.
Dali, China/Myanmar 6.1 1.48am
Southern Qinghai/China 7.3 6.04am
200km East of Fiji 6.5 10.13am

Update. 20 May 12.30pm
19 May.
Juan Fernandez Plate 6.7 12.42pm
Very mild brief geomagnetic storms 17-18 May from two coronal mass ejections were not enough to drive much tectonic action.
The remote Juan Fernandez Microplate 6.7 was at the junction of the Pacific, Antarctic and Nazca Plates in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Juan Fernandez Microplate is the rotating volcanic heart of the three large continental plates with a rotation rate of several centimeters/year and where oceanic spreading from upwelling lava is greatest along the Plate edges.
Solar conditions have picked up again on 19 May with the arrival of a weak coronal hole windstream.
Active sunspot AR2824 is rotating to be Earth facing in 3-4 days but has become less active today and may fade away.
The forecast period is extended to 20 May.
Southern Chile is higher Mag 6 risk.

Forecast. 17 May 2021.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Southern Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands, New Britain, Southern Bismarck Sea, Eastern Papua New Guinea, Offshore Northwest Sumatra, Central Philippines, Eastern Honshu, Hokkaido, Southern Kuril Islands, Offshore Oregon, Costa Rica, Valparaiso.
New eruptions possible at Tonga, Taal, Bulusan, Aso are flagged on the forecast map.
Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos are likely to continue and are not marked on the forecast map. Sinabung, Semeru, Merapi, Raung, Lewotolo, Suwanosejima, Pacaya, Fagradalsfjall.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.