Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 24 May 2021 - 30 May 2021

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Weak solar shocks forecasted for 26 May arrived just as the 26 May update was posted but were too weak to drive quakes and eruptions.
Sunspot AR2824 has driven a strong jetstream shift, increased by supermoon modulation.
Jetstreams were powered up even more with a high energy proton storm from the 29 May C9 long duration solar flare.
Biggest quake during the summary period was at least in Southwest Pacific high risk location but very late, outside the forecast period.
A solar shock from the 29 May flare is due 31 May.
30 May.
Tonga/Neiafu 5.7 9.36am

Update. 26 May 12.00am
Pacific quakes were quiet ahead of a mild solar shock due as this update is posted.
Eruptions at Etna, Nyiragongo, Stromboli are keeping the six month long global volcanic period moving along.
Taal is degassing and may erupt soon.
The forecast period is extended to 26 May.
Lunar modulation from the 26 May 11.15pm supermoon eclipse may increase the magnitude of any quakes.
Southwest Pacific is higher risk.

Update. 25 May 12.00am
Pacific quakes were quiet on 24 May.
Solar wind is at background levels ahead of a minor solar storm due early 26 May and supermoon eclipse due 11.15pm on 26 May.
The moon will be overhead in the Southwest Pacific during the eclipse.
Southwest Pacific is higher risk.

Forecast. 24 May 2021.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, South of Fiji, Hunter Island, Northern Vanuatu, Northern Papua New Guinea, Molucca Sea, Mindanao, Sunda Strait, Southern Sumatra, Andreanof Islands, Offshore Northern California, Colima, Oaxaca, Valparaiso, Nepal.
Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos are likely to continue.
New eruption possible Taal.
Conditions are likely to build to a peak 26 May.
Southwest Pacific higher risk.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific 26 May.