Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary Updated. 31 May 2021 - 15 June 2021

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Quakes continued for 2 days after the forecast was dropped on 1 June.
Quakes then fell away for nearly 2 weeks.
The forecast rule that quakes are more likely in risk locations from a previous period is justified again at Taupo and West of Matawai.
Christchurch received the biggest quakes for a long time during the forecast period.
The likelihood of a bigger quake in Christchurch in the near future seems slim.
Geonet vulcanologists reported brief tremor at White Island on 1 June, the height of the quake period...
A new forecast period begins 16 June with the arrival tonight of a coronal hole windstream.
2 June.
Halswell 3.9 1.49pm
3 June.
Lake Taupo/Motutere 4.2 12.23pm
12 June.
West of Matawai 4.0 4.08am

Update. 1 June 10.45pm
31 May.
Doubtful Sound 5.0 4.09pm USGS, EMSC. 5.5 Geonet
Offshore New Brighton 4.2 9.47pm
1 June.
Northern Tararua Range 4.0 1.27pm
Steady quakes have arrived during the period but not due to the arrival of a glancing shock from sunspot AR2824.
The 29 May high energy proton storm from AR2824 is likely the driver of the action.
Other spaceweather forecasters NASA etc. are still waiting for the shock to arrive but the flaring sunspot wasn't Earth facing enough and the shock has missed.
The period has probably ended.
Geonet have confirmed a slow slip quake event is underway at Porangahau.
Slow slips are when thousands of small quakes over several days or weeks occur instead of one big quake.
The New Brighton 4.2 was the biggest Christchurch quake for a long time and was widely felt.
The likelihood of the New Brighton 4.2 leading to a bigger quake is approximately zero.
The March and April long term outlook for active sunspots in late May is justified with the passing of sunspot AR2824.
A new period of sunspot activity and a minor supermoon is possible from 18 June.

Forecast. 31 May 2021.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Eketahuna, Masterton.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are East of East Cape, East Cape, Tokomaru Bay, Matawai, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Taupo, Rotorua, Mahia, Napier, Hastings, Kapiti, North of D'Urville Island, Southern Cook Strait, Cape Campbell, Upper Rakaia River, Lord River, Pyke River, Bligh Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Doubtful Sound.
Volcanos quiet.
A slow slip quake may be underway at Porangahau.