Aotearoa Summary. 16 June 2021 - 5 July 2021
1. A weak coronal hole windstream from 16-21 June gave a mild quake response in New Zealand with some forecast location success. Solar conditions and quakes were quiet from 21-30 June. 2. An unforecasted weak coronal hole windstream arrived 30 June and a period of local and Pacific quakes followed with some location success from the earlier forecast period. Quakes after a period has ended tend to fall in risk locations from the period. Sunspot AR2838 appeared suddenly on 2 July and flared X1.5 the next day. Fortunately the sunspot was nearly at the western horizon, non Earth facing, so had little effect on quakes despite a minor high energy proton storm. New spaceweather is due about 13 July. 16 June. 20km North of Gisborne 4.2 10.43am 20 June. Upper Cascade River 4.0 8.47am 21 June. 120km North of East Cape 4.1 5.02pm Southeast of Manapouri 4.6 5.16pm 1 July. Kaikoura 4.0 10.45pm 2 July. Motiti Island 5.0 9.14pm 5 July. East of Whangarei 4.0 1.29pm Update. 21 June 10.00pm 21 June. 120km North of East Cape 4.1 5.02pm Southeast of Manapouri 4.6 5.16pm The outlook for quakes to pick up as solar conditions faded out is justified. The 5.05am Kermadecs 6.3 is followed by two time clustered quakes late in the day in New Zealand. The period has probably ended. A very brief quake period may arrive late 24 June. Sunspot AR2833 is fading fast. Update. 20 June 1.30pm 20 June. Upper Cascade River 4.0 8.47am A long lived but weak coronal hole solar windstream has outlasted the forecast. Local and Pacific quakes have therefore been subdued from the mild conditions. Solar conditions look to be fading today, 2 days later than forecasted. Pacific tremor has picked up today. A late mild burst of quakes is possible. The forecast period is extended to 21 June. Sunspot AR2833 is Earth facing but inactive. A flare is very unlikely although plasma filaments hovering near the sunspot may erupt, making a possible mild solar storm. Aurora season March-May has ended and solar activity is weakening ahead of the new spring aurora season September-November. Update. 16 June 11.00pm 16 June. 20km North of Gisborne 4.2 10.43am A mild coronal hole windstream arrived on cue with a very light quake response. Quakes are likely to remain infrequent on 17 June but may pick up on 18 June as the coronal hole windstream fades. Sunspot AR2833 is moving around to be Earth facing for the next few days, fitting the long term outlook from April and May for sunspot activity from 18 June. The sunspot looks to be inactive however and confidence that it will flare in the next few days is low. Time will tell. Forecast. 16-17 June 2021. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Snares Islands, Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Murchison, St Arnaud, Kaikoura, Ward, Cape Campbell, South of Wellington, North of D'Urville Island, Mana, Kapiti, Masterton, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Gisborne, Matawai, Kawerau, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Taupo. Volcanos quiet. Sunspot activity may pick up from around 18 June. Confidence=low. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
