Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 17 June 2021 - 5 July 2021

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The Summary is in two parts.
1. A weak coronal hole windstream created a very mild quake response up until 21 June when solar conditions faded away and the forecast period ended.
2. Another weak coronal hole windstream arrived on 30 June, following several days with no spaceweather or quakes. A moderate quake response followed with very good location success from the 17-21 June forecast map...although too late to be an accurate forecast.
Quakes after a period has ended tend to be in risk locations from that period.
Familiar volcanos remained active at low levels.
A new eruption at Taal may be followed by more action.
Philippines seismologists say SO2 gas levels are very high, indicating more action is likely.
Sunspot AR2838 popped up very suddenly on 2 July, then suddenly flared X1.5 with a small high energy proton storm reaching Earth.
Fortunately the sunspot was nearly on the western horizon and flared away from Earth.
This is the first X flare in 4 years and an indication that Solar Cycle 25 is slowly powering up.
New spaceweather is due on 13 July approx.
Noctilucent clouds have been seen from Northern Italy for the second year, indicating a cold wet mesosphere as the Sun goes through a very inactive period and the upper atmosphere cools in response.
19 June.
500km West of Fiji 5.8 11.59pm
21 June.
Kermadec Islands/50km East of Macauley Island 6.3 5.05am
1 July.
Eruption Taal.
3 July.
South of Fiji 6.1 8.14am
4 July.
Coquimbo 6.0 1.01pm
Coquimbo 6.0 1.29pm

Update. 21 June 9.40pm
21 June.
Kermadec Islands/50km East of Macauley Island 6.3 5.05am
A late burst of quakes has arrived on cue, rescuing the forecast from the trash can.
The weak coronal hole windstream from 16 June has finally faded away with a parting burst of quakes.
A small quake sequence in New Zealand following the Kermadecs 6.3 isn't coincidental.
Paroxysms at 36 hour intervals are underway at Etna.
The period has probably ended.
A very short quake period may occur late 24 June.
Sunspot AR2833 is fading away.

Update. 20 June 2.00pm
19 June.
500km West of Fiji 5.8 11.59pm
A weak coronal hole solar windstream during the period hasn't brought much action to the Pacific.
The outlook for quakes to pick up on 18 June relied on the solar windstream to fade away but it has continued until today.
Pacific tremor has picked up today with the Fiji 5.8 and may continue.
A late burst of quakes is possible on 21 June.
Etna has returned to near daily fountaining eruptions in June, following a few quiet weeks.
Indonesian volcanos Sinabung, Semeru, Merapi, Lewotolo are all in constant effusive eruptions.
Iceland volcano Fagradalsfjall is in constant eruption and lava has nearly reached the sea.
Sunspot AR2833 is Earth facing but inactive.
The March-May aurora season when solar activity is stronger has ended.
2021 nearly matches 2020 for the lowest solar activity in 200 years...so far.
A new aurora season begins in September.

Forecast. 17-18 June, 2021.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, North Bismarck Sea, North Banda Sea, Molcucca Sea, Mindanao, Offshore West Java, Offshore Southern Sumatra, Okinawa, Southeast of Honshu, Denali, Offshore Oregon, Salton Sea, El Salvador, Ecuador, Valparaiso, Coquimbo.
Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos are likely to continue.
Quakes may be subdued 17 June, picking up on 18 June.
Sunspot AR2833 is coming around to face Earth, meeting the long term sunspot outlook...but AR2833 is inactive and confidence for a flare is low.