Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 13 July 2021 - 28 July 2021

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Update. 29 July 12.00am
The forecast was dropped on 16 July but a Pacific quake period began on 18 July.
The Pacific quake period never really came to New Zealand, a minor burst of quakes 18-19 July was the only signal.
Forecast timing is always an issue with weak coronal hole windstreams, this period was no exception.
Minor filament eruptions from Earth facing sunspot AR2849 and some coronal hole effects may bring a weak quake period on 31 May.
GNS seismologists say White Island is hot, raising the alert to Level 2.
No realtime data on Ruapehu, the seismologists don't publish any to the public, but the crater lake was cool and slowly heating recently.
18 July.
Northwest Arm Te Anau 4.4 8.36pm
19 July.
D'Urville Island 4.2 6.11am USGS. 3.8 Geonet.
25 July.
Ruatoria 3.8 8.42am

Update. 16 July 10.15pm
15 July.
Northwest Arm Te Anau 3.9 7.31pm
The mild solar windstream is weakening with only weak tectonic response.
The quake period has probably ended.
Multiple X Class flares from sunspot AR2840 are underway last 2 days.
The flares and coronal mass ejections won't affect Earth because the sunspot is on the backside of the Sun, facing away from Earth.
The active sunspot is due to rotate around to the eastern horizon in about 3 days and become Earth facing from 24 July.
A period of strong weather, quakes and eruptions is possible from 26-31 July.
Additional new sunspots may emerge and flare during the next days.

Update. 15 July, 12.00am
Local quakes are quiet due to the non arrival of a coronal hole windstream.
A mild solar windstream has finally turned up very late on 14 July, saving the forecast from the trash can.
The forecast period is extended to 15 July.
Quakes are shifting slightly in location so risk location confidence has become low.

Forecast. 13-14 July, 2021.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, Doubtful Sound, NW Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Mahia.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Pyke River, Cascade River, Arawhata River, Upper Rakaia River, Kaikoura, Cape Campbell, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Northern Hawkes Bay, Gisborne.
Volcanos quiet.