Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 31 July 2021 - 8 August 2021

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Tricky spaceweather conditions during the period from weak solar filamentary eruptions. The first was weak, the second much stronger.
The big July Pacific quake period left behind a couple of moderate quakes in New Zealand with excellent location success.
The SE of Haast 3.9 came after the forecast period ended and was slightly away from the Arawhata River risk location.
White Island is hot along with many other Pacific volcanos as a volcanic period typically follows the big July quake period.
A new quake period begins 9 August.
2 August.
Tokoroa 5.1 1.04am
5 August.
30km West of Paraparaumu 4.6 3.51am
7 August.
25 km Southeast of Haast 3.9 6.51pm

Update. 5 August 12.30pm
5 August.
30km West of Paraparaumu 4.6 3.51am
Wellington region is rattled for the second time during the forecast period following the 2 August Tokoroa 5.1 which also shook the Lower North Island...quake energy is directional.
Spaceweather is easing today.
The quake period is probably ending in New Zealand although Equatorial regions may remain active for another day.
Local quakes, if any, are more likely in South Island locations.

Update. 4 August 11.45am
Pacific and Indonesian quakes are busy but New Zealand is quiet.
The filamentary coronal mass ejection CME from departing sunspot AR2846 is much stronger than the 1 August CME.
The solar windstream is mild but well connected magnetically today.
A late quake is possible as the windstream fades.
The forecast period is extended to 4 August.

Update. 3 August 1.00pm
2 August.
Tokoroa 5.1 1.04am
A weak filamentary coronal mass ejection has arrived a few hours later than expected and after the Tokoroa 5.1
The forecast period is extended to 3 August.

Update. 1 August, 6.30pm.
1 August.
5km West of Burnham 3.8 3.10pm
Weak spaceweather arrived on cue but was never enough to drive much action.
The Burnham 3.8 was felt in Christchurch and a possible indicator for increasing South Island activity, following a very quiet week.
Another weak filamentary coronal mass ejection from departing sunspot AR2846 is due at Earth about now and may create a South Island pickup.
The forecast period is extended to 2 August.

Forecast. 31 July 2021.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Bligh Sound.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Cascade River, Northern Olivines, Lower Arawhata River, Kapiti, Mana, D'Urville Island, South of Wanganui, Eketahuna, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Wairoa, Mahia, Matawai, Taupo, Tokoroa, Rotorua.
Volcanos quiet.
Small coronal mass ejections from decaying sunspots AR2846 and 2849 may create mild geomagnetic storms next 2 days.
The period is likely to be extended.