Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 26 October 2014 - 30 October 2014

26-30 October, 2014. Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are East Cape, North Wairarapa, North Taranaki Bight, North Canterbury, Chrstchurch, Fiordland. Activity may begin in the North Island and strengthen through the period. Fiordland and Canterbury may become active from 28 Oct. NZ volcanoes quiet. Global quake activity may be strong in the southern hemisphere. Solomon Islands, Tonga, Chile. Pacific volcanoes are all very inflated and likely to continue through the period. Watch out for Bardarbunga, Kilauea, Copahue, Cerro Negro de Mayasquer-Chiles, Sinabung, Mayon. Summary. 25 Oct. Bardarbunga 5.0. 26 Oct. Bardarbunga 5.0. 27 Oct. North of White Island 4.2. 28 Oct. Eketahuna 4.4, Tonga 6.1 USGS, Solomon Islands 5.1, Bardarbunga 5.4, 5.0. 29 Oct. Kermadecs 4.7, East Cape 3.8, Mag 3+ swarm NZ. 30 Oct. North of White Island 4.3 USGS, Seddon 3.7, Mag 3+ swarm NZ. A successful forecast. Quakes arrived on cue, building strongly on 28 Oct. as expected. Quakes were widespread on 29/30 Oct., activity on the Clarence Fault not quite reaching Canterbury. Global quake expectations for Tonga, Solomon Islands and Chile were met. Giant sunspot 12192 made this a difficult period to forecast. Volcano Summary. Volcanoes all picked up on 28-30 Oct. Several new volcanoes to add to the list. Shiveluch erupted for the second time in a forecast period.