Pacific Summary. 31 July 2021 - 8 August 2021
Eruptions at 3 Aleutian Islands volcanos haven't made news but reinforce the forecast rule that eruptions tend to follow quake periods. Guatemala volcano Pacaya has erupted following several quiet weeks. Frustratingly the region was a quake risk location but an eruption has come instead. Many other volcanos are hot...White Island, Savo, Kadovar, Manam, Suwanosejima, Karymsky, Stromboli, Fagradalsfjall. More volcanic action seems likely with the arrival of new spaceweather early 9 August. 31 July. Gulf of California 5.5 3.39pm Eruption Etna 2 August. East Banda Sea 5.9 5.01pm 3 August. Southern Mentawai Islands 5.8 10.48am 3 August. Nicobar Islands 6.0 3.42pm 4 August. 100km Northeast of Tokyo 5.9 8.33am 5 August. Taiwan 5.8 9.50am Eruption Pavlof, Semisopochnoi, Great Sitkin, Merapi, Lewotolok. Update. 5 August 12.30pm 5 August. Taiwan 5.8 9.50am Spaceweather is fading today, quakes below Mag 6. Late residual equatorial quakes are possible from such a long period. The forecast period is extended to 5 August. Update. 4 August 11.15am 3 August. Nicobar Islands 6.0 3.42pm 4 August. 100km Northeast of Tokyo 5.9 8.33am The second coronal mass ejection from departing sunspot AR2849 is much stronger than the 1 August shock. Spaceweather isn't strong but is magnetically well connected to Earth. Indonesian quake action moved from the Mentawai Islands further north to the Nicobar Islands. A significant quake swarm near Tokyo may continue today. The forecast period is extended to 4 August. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Update. 3 August 12.30pm 2 August. East Banda Sea 5.9 5.01pm 3 August. Southern Mentawai Islands 5.8 10.48am A filamentary coronal mass ejection has arrived at Earth this morning, a few hours later than forecasted. Mild geomagnetic storms Kp5 are underway. A Mentawai Islands quake swarm may grow to Mag 6 today. The forecast period is extended to 3 August. Update. 1 August 5.00pm 31 July. Gulf of California 5.5 3.39pm Eruption Etna A puny coronal mass ejection has arrived on cue but not enough to drive Mag 6 action. Good location success from the biggest Gulf of California 5.5 quake so far during the period. Another small coronal mass ejection from decaying sunspot AR2846 is due about now and may drive some quakes. The forecast period is extended to 2 August. Valparaiso, South of Valdivia are added to Mag 6 risk locations. A big eruption at Etna, fountaining to 1000m, following a couple of quiet days. Volcanos tend to follow quakes so the big late July quake period may be followed by some new eruptions or more intense ongoing eruptions. Forecast. 31 July 2021. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Macquarie Island, Auckland Island, Kermadec Islands, South of Fiji, Tonga, Tanna, Northern Vanuatu, Izu Islands, South of Japan, Aleutian Islands, Haida Gwai, Offshore Vancouver Island, Offshore Northern California, Baja California, Gulf of California, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica. Small coronal mass ejections next 2 days from decaying sunspots AR2846 and AR2849 may extend the 13-30 July Pacific quake spell. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
