Aotearoa Summary. 27 August 2021 - 4 September 2021
2 September. White Island ash emission 3 September. 50km North of East Cape 4.5 7.24am 4 September. Richmond Range 4.1 10.55am A sustained period of ash emission from White Island as Pacific volcanos heat up gives some credit to the forecast despite ropey timing due to very patchy spaceweather driving the period. The Richmond Range 4.1 is arguably within the St Arnaud risk location although outside time parameters. Quakes after a forecast period ends are more likely in risk locations from that period. New spaceweather from a mild coronal hole windstream is due late 6 September. Update. 2 September 11.30am 28 August. D'Urville Island 4.1 12.52pm 31 August. 90km North of East Cape 4.2 8.25am 20km Southeast of Karamea 3.9 8.45am 1 September. Matawai 3.7 5.51am 2 September. East of East Cape 4.0 10.49am The forecast has fallen over due to the non arrival of some minor filamentary coronal mass ejections from Earth facing sunspots AR2859 and AR2860. A brief period of spaceweather on 27 August caused an ionospheric radio blackout over Mexico, coming as Cyclone Ida powered to Cat 4. The last of the coronal mass ejections could still arrive today but is likely to be weak. Regardless, quake location success has been good in East Coast risk locations but overall patchy and weak. Volcanic tremor at White Island remains moderately high but no news from the vulcanologists. Forecast. 27 August 2021. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Cascade River, St. Arnaud, Awatere Valley, Kaikoura Ranges, Cape Campbell, Central Cook Strait, Masterton, Dannevirke, Porangahau, Waipukurau, Wairoa, Mahia, Gisborne, Matawai, Tolaga Bay, East of East Cape, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Taupo. Possibility minor ash emission at White Island later in the period. Weak solar filamentary coronal mass ejections may continue for 2-3 days, driving fluctuating quake conditions. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
