Pacific Summary. 27 August 2021 - 9 September 2021
8 September. Acapulco 7.0 1.47pm The forecast heavily chased Latin America and California quakes but frustratingly the Acapulco 7.0 fell between them. The forecast outlook for spaceweather late 6 September was a mistake. The forecast was dropped too early when spaceweather didn't arrive on time. Sadly, spaceweather did arrive over a day late and the Acapulco 7.0 fell in this time. Spaceweather is fluctuating and hard to forecast as several moderately active sunspots puff out minor coronal mass ejections. Solar activity drives weather and it should be pointed out that Cat 4 Cyclone Ida occurred during this period along with tectonic activity in the same region. The same situation occurred in 2017 when the 7 September 2017 Mexico 8.2 occurred shortly after several Cat 4 and Cat 5 cyclones tore through the Caribbean. A Pacific forecast was posted for 7 Sept. 2017, including Mexico. Update. 4 September 12.00pm 2 September. Eruption Pagan, White Island, Semisopochnoi, Telica The massive July/August double Mag 8 quake spell has gone but the following volcanic period continues at a low level. Ash emissions from several new volcanic players ensures the 8 month long global volcanic period continues for a while yet. Early news from Iceland indicates Grimsvotn may be in eruption following a large glacial flood. Iceland vulcanologists reported in 2020 that the volcano was expanding and heating.... A new forecast period begins late 6 September with the arrival of a mild coronal hole windstream. Update. 2 September 12.00pm 27 August. Eruption Suwanosejima Cyclone Ida Cat 4 31 August. Kermadec Islands 6.3 2.52pm From several forecasted weak filamentary coronal mass ejections only the 27 August event arrived at Earth. An ionospheric radio blackout over Mexico was recorded with the CME arrival, coinciding with tropical Cyclone Ida powering up to Cat 4. The upper atmosphere electric charging was inevitably a contributor to the cyclone intensification. Quakes and eruptions were unaffected by the weak spaceweather. The electric pathway for quakes is through the auroral ring and underground currents rather than ionospheric charging. Volcanos remain active but only Etna and Suwanosejima had big eruptions. A very late coronal mass ejection may still arrive today but is likely to be weak. Forecast. 27 August 2021. Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Fiordland, Kermadec Islands, Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Southeast Molucca Sea, Northern Sumatra, Northern Myanmar, Eastern Himalayas, Rat Islands, Offshore British Columbia, Offshore Oregon, Northern Gulf of California, Colima, North of Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Central Peru, North of Valparaiso, South Sandwich Islands, Hindu Kush. New eruptions may increase at Fukutoka-Okanaba, Taal, Lokon, Kilauea, White Island. Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos are likely to continue. Etna, Fagradalsfjall, Great Sitkin, Semisopochnoi, Karymsky, Shiveluch, Ebeko, Chirinkotan, Suwanosejima, Merapi, Lewotolo. Weak coronal mass ejections from erupting solar filaments may give fluctuating spaceweather at Earth next few days. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
