Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary Updated. 25 September 2021 - 28 September 2021

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Update. 12 October 1.00pm
29 September.
Eruption Kilauea.
Strong quake swarms under Halema'uma'u 24-28 September have led to an eruption.
The lava lake is 35 meters deep on 12 October and lava fountaining to 15m.

Spaceweather was much weaker than forecasted and quakes are subdued in response.
A coronal hole windstream was puny and a small coronal mass ejection from sunspot AR1278 was also weak.
The eruption of Cumbre Vieja is fluctuating but shows no sign of ending yet.
24 September.
200km SE Adak Island 6.1 11.52pm
Eruption Cumbre Vieja
27 September.
Crete 6.0 7.17pm

Forecast. 25-26 September 2021.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Molucca Sea, South of Mindanao, Gulf of Alaska, Offshore Northern California, Northern Gulf of California, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Atacama, Valparaiso.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Cumbre Vieja, Semisopochnoi, Etna, Grimsvotn, Kilauea.
The period may build over several days as active sunspot AR1278 crosses the solar disc.