Aotearoa Summary. 22 October 2021 - 30 October 2021
The forecast was dropped on 23 October as solar wind weakened although quakes moved to the South Island and rumbled on for several days. Quakes after a forecast period ends or is dropped tend to fall in risk locations from that period. 22 October. 60km NE of Stratford 5.6 10.58am 223km USGS, EMSC. (Geonet 5.9) 24 October. East of East Cape 4.2 5.28am 26 October. Upper Matukituki Valley 4.4 2.50am 27 October. Offshore Doubtful Sound 4.3 2.11am Upper Dingle Burn 4.1 1.45pm 28 October. East of East Cape 4.3 4.24am 30 October. Puysegur Point 4.0 6.10am Update. 22 October 12.00pm 22 October. 60km NE of Stratford 5.6 10.58am 223km USGS, EMSC. (Geonet 5.9) Mild spaceweather from a coronal hole windstream has brought some deep local action. Typically, the deep quake was hardly felt by many in Taumarunui or other western locations yet strongly felt in far off Wellington. Quake energy is directional and critical to forecast technique. Spaceweather is very mild and the period is otherwise not very active. A deep Louisville 6.0 last night is the only Mag 6 Pacific quake and may be precursor to todays quake. Quakes are likely to remain infrequent with the mild spaceweather. Forecast. 22 October 2021. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Bligh Sound. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest of Snares Islands, Southern Fiordland, Arawhata River, Haast, Murchison, Kahurangi, Ward, Seddon, Cape Campbell, Eastern Cook Strait, Southern Wairarapa, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, South of Taranaki, Stratford, Taupo, Atiamuri, Tokoroa, Okataina, Whakatane, Matawai, Tolaga Bay. Volcanos quiet. Weak coronal hole windstream conditions are here and may bring a mild quake uptick. The forecast period may be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
