Aotearoa Summary Updated. 31 October 2021 - 18 November 2021
A Pacific and local quake period arrived on 11 November with some good location success from the previous forecast period. Quakes after a forecast period ends or is dropped tend to come in the risk locations from that forecast. A significant Canterbury quake swarm during and after the period was met with some forecast success. New spaceweather from a coronal hole windstream is here and may build slowly to a peak from 22 November. A new forecast is being processed. 11 November. Aratiatia 4.2 8.49pm Northwest Arm Te Anau 4.5 11.06pm 12 November. 5km North of Darfield 3.5 11.14pm 18 November. East of East Cape 5.0 2.37am Summary. 5 November. Double Mag 5 quakes have made a busy local period and some good risk location success. The big Kp7 geomagnetic storm was short lived due to a weak magnetic connection and possibly firing slightly south of Earth. New Zealand turned out to be a quake hotspot despite a mild quake spell around the rest of the Pacific with the rapidly fading auroras. The addition of Methven and Lake Coleridge to risk locations was justified with the Cass 3.8. The later addition of Upper Rakaia was justified with the Mt Hutt 4.1. Biggest North Island quake following the D"Urville 5.5 was the Kuripapango 3.7 between the Ruahines and the Kawekas. Good location success from infrequently forecasted Ruahine Ranges. Failing to add popular risk location D"Urville Island to the forecast map was a mistake. A Taranaki Bight, Taranaki, Taumarunui long term deep quake sequence may be evolving and could lead to an increase in quakes in Wairarapa and possibly Nelson/Murchison. 31 October. Northeast of Stratford 4.6 10.49pm 3 November. Cass 3.8 4.09pm 5 November. 90km West of Snares Islands 5.5 5.36am 7 November. 70km Northwest of D"Urville Island 5.5 190km 4.16pm 8 November. Kuripapango 3.7 11.33am 9 November. Mt Hutt 4.1 9.07am 70km North of D"Urville Island 4.3 3.04pm Update. 5 November 12.30pm 5 November. 90km West of Snares Islands 5.5 5.36am Rebooting the forecast and adding Mag 5 risk locations south of New Zealand is justified. Strong Kp7 geomagnetic storms and spectacular auroras accompanied the quake action. Spaceweather conditions are slightly uncertain looking ahead but several solar flares have been fired last 3 days and more solar shocks are possible. The forecast period is extended to 6 November. Possibility Mag 6 Fiordland. Update. 4 November 11.30am 3 November. Cass 3.8 4.09pm The addition of Canterbury risk locations may be justified as action seems to be moving to the South Island. The Cass 3.8 was the biggest New Zealand quake. Spaceweather has remained moderate and steady with the passing of flaring sunspot AR2887. Despite subdued local quakes, conditions are likely to be charged up and a sudden release is possible with strong new spaceweather due about now. An Earth directed M1 flare from sunspot AR2891 on 2 November is about to affect Earth. Strong Kp7 geomagnetic storming could occur anytime. The forecast period is extended to 5 November. SW Pacific including New Zealand are possible hotspots. Snares Islands, Upper Rakaia River are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Possibility Mag 5-6 New Zealand. Confidence=low. Update. 2 November 1.00pm Local quakes were quiet off the back of the big solar storm fizzer. A mere brief Kp5 geomagnetic storm is all that resulted from the big X1 flare out of sunspot AR2887. The most likely explanation is that the bulk of the coronal mass ejection fired just south of Earth. Regardless some more moderate spaceweather has arrived today and may still be related to the X1 flare. Additionally, a high energy proton storm from the flare has bombarded Earth for 3 days and may have some tectonic effect from the highly charged atmosphere. Delayed or late tectonic effects seem possible from this big flare. The forecast period is extended to 3 October. Lake Coleridge, Methven, Springfield, White Island are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Forecast confidence=low. Update. 31 October 11.30pm 31 October. Northeast of Stratford 4.6 10.49pm Spaceweather and quakes are picking up tonight as a potentially strong geomagnetic storm unfolds. High energy protons have bombarded Earth for two days since the X1 solar flare from sunspot AR2887. A slower moving coronal mass ejection from the same sunspot is here... slightly later than expected. The forecast period is extended to 1 November. Forecast. 31 October 2021. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Fiordland. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Lower Arawhata River, Haast, Matukituki Valley, Murchison, Kahurangi, St. Arnaud, Nelson, Cape Campbell, Levin, Northern Tararua Ranges, Taihape, Ruahine Ranges, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Hastings, Taumarunui, Taupo, Tokoroa, Turangi, East of East Cape. Volcanos quiet. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
