Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 31 October 2021 - 18 November 2021

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Spaceweather was strong early in the period following the X1 flare from sunspot AR2887.
The Kp7 geomagnetic storm was short lived however and quakes didn't immediately follow but became stretched out over many days.
Regardless of the timing issues, there were some risk location successes at South Molucca Sea and Okinawa.
New Zealand received double Mag 5.5 quakes during the period, slightly justifying the Macquarie Island risk location.
The Cumbre Vieja eruption is ongoing along with the 2021 global volcanic period where eruptions are becoming long lasting.
Every time seismologists predict the eruption is ending the volcano picks up again.
Quakes have faded away last few days.
A new forecast period from coronal hole windstreams begins 19 November and is likely to build slowly to a peak from 22 October.
1 November.
South Sandwich Islands 6.1 1.02pm
2 November.
Offshore Northern Sumatra 6.0 6.04am
3 November.
Eruption Karymsky.
5 November.
90km West of Snares Islands 5.5 5.36am
7 November.
South Molucca Sea 6.0 3.37am
NW D"Urville Island 5.5 4.16pm
9 November.
Nicaragua 6.2 5.25pm
11 November.
South of Okinawa 6.6 4.45am
South of Papua 6.0 6.46am
15 November.
Southern Iran 6.3, 6.0 12.07am

Update. 5 November 12.00pm
3 November.
Eruption Karymsky.
5 November.
90km West of Snares Islands 5.5 5.36am
Rebooting the forecast was justified as strong Kp7 storming brought action south of New Zealand on 5 November.
Adding Macquarie Island to Mag 6 risk locations is justified.
Three strong explosions and heavy ash were recorded at remote Kamchatka Peninsula volcano Karymsky on 3 November.
Spaceweather conditions for 6 November a slightly uncertain because of several coronal mass ejections last 3 days.
Another solar shock may still arrive tonight.
The forecast period is extended to 6 November.
California remains Mag 6 risk.
Fiordland is added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 4 November 3.15pm
1 November.
South Sandwich Islands 6.1 1.02pm
2 November.
Offshore Northern Sumatra 6.0 6.04am
The forecast was dropped on 2 November following the fizzer geomagnetic storm from AR2887 X1 flare.
Quakes came but weren't in risk locations.
A 2 November M1 LDE flare from Earth facing AR2891 is due at Earth about now with strong Kp7 geomagnetic storming likely.
Risk locations from the original forecast are largely unchanged so the forecast is rebooted.
Northern Sumatra, Southern Vanuatu, Macquarie Island, Okinawa, Offshore Hokkaido are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Southern California remains Mag 6 risk.
SW Pacific is higher risk location.
Volcanic tremor may increase at Mauna Loa.
Volcanic activity may increase at several ongoing eruptions.
Cumbre Vieja, Kilauea, Etna, Yasur, Manam, Suwanosejima, Semisopochnoi, Lewotolo, Rabaul.
The forecast period is likely to be extended to 6 November.

Update. 31 October 11.45pm
Pacific quakes are quiet on 31 October.
Spaceweather is picking up tonight as a potentially strong coronal mass ejection from sunspot AR2887 arrives.
Quakes are likely to pick up strongly as geomagnetic storming commences.
The forecast period is extended to 1 November.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low.

Forecast. 31 October 2021.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Northern Tonga, South of Fiji, Northern Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, Molucca Sea, Offshore Oregon, Southern California, South of Valdivia.
Volcanic activity may increase later in the period.
The period is likely to be extended.