Pacific Summary. 19 November 2021 - 5 November 2021
Despite some early signs of increasing quakes in California and other locations, quakes never arrived. Spaceweather early in the period was only mild from a coronal hole windstream and likely not enough energy to drive quakes early in the period. The forecast was dropped from 23 November. Quakes picked up as the coronal hole windstream ended on 26 November but with no risk location success from earlier in the period. Steady quake action got to Mag 7.5 in Peru. No damage at the surface from the 110km deep quake. A big stratospheric eruption cloud at Semeru has partially collapsed into a devastating pyroclastic flow. Hot ash has burnt many people and the situation is chaotic as villagers flee. Weak coronal hole windstreams and weak plasma filament eruptions are challenging forecast conditions at the moment. 19 November. 100km East of New Britain 6.2 3.08pm El Salvador 5.8 5.56am 20 November. Vanuatu/Espiritu Santo 5.6 11.57pm 21 November. Kermadec Islands/East of Raoul Island 5.9 6.12pm 26 November. Vanuatu/North of Sola 6.0 1.04am Myanmar 6.2 12.45pm 28 November. Inland Northern Peru 7.5 11.52pm 30 November. Izu Islands 6.3 1.40am Eastern Bismarck Sea 6.3 11.36pm 3 December. Easter Microplate 6.2 5.40pm South Sandwich Islands 6.0 9.33pm 4 December. Eruption Semeru 5 December. East Molucca Sea 6.0 12.47pm Update. 22 November 9.30pm 20 November. Vanuatu/Espiritu Santo 5.6 11.57pm 21 November. Kermadec Islands/East of Raoul Island 5.9 6.12pm Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 last two days. Biggest quakes were in risk locations. A coronal hole windstream is due to arrive at Earth early 22 November. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Southern California remains Mag 6 risk. Update. 21 November 11.00pm 19 November. 100km East of New Britain 6.2 3.08pm El Salvador 5.8 5.56am Pacific quakes are mild ahead of the forecasted 22 November pickup. Mixed location success with the two biggest quakes. Risk location California is very busy with many quakes in Gulf of California, Offshore Oregon and the San Francisco 3.9. Quake swarms near Iceland volcano Hekla may produce an eruption after 22 November. Hekla has a history of sudden eruptions with little or no warning. Nearby Askja is also inflated and could erupt soon. Fagradalsfjall has gone quiet since 18 September. Vulcanologists aren't sure if the eruption has ended due to a recent quake swarm. The forecast period is extended to 21 November. Forecast. 19 November. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, South of Fiji, Northern Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, Northern Sumatra, Offshore Hokkaido, Atka Island, California, El Salvador, Atacama, South of Valdivia. Volcanic eruptions may increase later in the period. Hekla, Askja, Cumbre Vieja, Taal. The period is likely to begin slowly, building up from 22 November. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
