Aotearoa Summary. 15 January 2022 - 29 January 2022
This marked the end of the eruption which began 20 December 2021, steadily building up. The volcano was already in an ugly mood on 14 January with heavy ash eruptions and volcanic lightning. Tremor was high north of New Zealand before the forecast period began and the South of Kermadecs Mag 6 risk came with the eruption. Importantly, the East of East Cape 4.8 occurred concurrently with the eruption. Widespread North Island risk locations were justified with ongoing slow slip action and Full Moon on 18 January...both tend to spread out quakes. Good location success at Kapiti although Magnitude was low due to the slow slip. Quakes then moved south to a good sequence north of Milford Sound. The 25 January East of East Cape 5.3 marked the end of the forecast period as spaceweather fell to background level accompanied by the signature last burst of quakes. Quakes then fell away although a moderate Kawerau 3.5 swarm matched some early January action in the area. Volcanic action is likely to dominate 2022 and quake swarms on the Volcanic Plateau/Bay of Plenty seem more likely as a result. Mild volcanic tremor at Ruapehu has fallen away at the end of the period, White Island is quiet. Ruapehu is at the top of its heating cycle just now but no news from the vulcanologists...they usually make an announcement when the crater lake temperature gets to 40C. New spaceweather may drive new volcanic tremor at Ruapehu but conditions are quiet at the moment. Sunspot AR2936 may produce a small flare in the next few days. 15 January. East of East Cape 4.8 4.21pm Hunga Ha'apai 5.8 5.14pm USGS + major eruption VEI5. 18 January. 200km North of East Cape 4.0 12.57pm East of East Cape 4.2 5.45pm Porangahau Mag 2.-3 swarm. 18 January. 200km North of East Cape 4.0 12.57pm East of East Cape 4.2 5.45pm Porangahau Mag 2.-3 swarm. 22 January. 30km W of Paraparumu 3.5 8.42am 23 January. 10km SW of Kapiti Island 3.5 2.24pm 24 January. 20km N. Milford Sound 4.4 5.33am 20km N. Milford Sound 4.2 7.46am 20km N. Milford Sound 4.3 1.43pm 25 January. East of East Cape 5.3 9.25am 27 January. Kawerau 3.5, 3.4 +swarm 9.34pm Feilding 3.8 11.27pm Update. 24 January 5.00pm 22 January. 30km W of Paraparumu 3.5 8.42am 23 January. 10km SW of Kapiti Island 3.5 2.24pm 24 January. 20km N. Milford Sound 4.4 5.33am 20km N. Milford Sound 4.2 7.46am 20km N. Milford Sound 4.3 1.43pm Quakes have arrived with the more active end of the forecast period. Low magnitude Kapiti quakes were as big as it got in the North Island. North Island quakes have showed slow slip event signature during the period...quakes are more frequent but lower magnitude and widespread especially Waipukurau, Porangahau. Quakes moved south at the end of the period. A decent Mag 4 swarm north of Milford Sound could be precursor for more action. Spaceweather has faded today and is now at background level. New spaceweather is due late 26 January and quakes may resume then. Quakes are likely to be infrequent 25 January. An update or new forecast will be posted 26 January. Tremor at Ruapehu has subsided last couple of days as spaceweather fades. Tremor may pick up again at Ruapehu with new spaceweather and as the heating cycle at the volcano reaches a peak. Update. 21 January 11.30am 18 January. 200km North of East Cape 4.0 12.57pm East of East Cape 4.2 5.45pm Porangahau Mag 2.-3 swarm. Spaceweather is now fading and the more active end of the forecast period arrives. Low magnitude, high frequency quakes in familiar slow slip signature locations Porangahau, Waipukurau, Hastings indicate an ongoing slow slip event. Local seismologists may make an announcement confirming a slow slip event underway for several weeks. Volcanic Plateau is also very busy with some bigger widely felt Bay of Plenty action this morning. Low level volcanic tremor continues at Ruapehu. The mid December long term outlook for a degassing or eruption at Ruapehu late January or early February remains. The forecast period is extended to 22 January. Mag 4 quakes are likely to remain infrequent due to the slow slip event but Mag 5 remains possible. North Island is higher risk. Update. 19 January 3.30pm 18 January. 200km North of East Cape 4.0 12.57pm East of East Cape 4.2 5.45pm Porangahau Mag 2.-3 swarm. Spaceweather is high today and sustained. Coronal hole solar wind enhancement and a minor coronal mass ejection shock have kept conditions rolling along. The solar windstream is likely to begin easing over the next 2-3 days as the end of the forecast period approaches and quakes typically come as a late burst. Quakes are busy but low magnitude. A slow slip quake event may be underway. Ruapehu is showing early signs of coming to life with increasing volcanic tremor and a small quake swarm near the summit in the last week. The Mid December outlook for heating at Ruapehu late January or early February is drawing closer. Pacific tremor is high and conditions look set for some more action in the SW Pacific, including Hunga Ha'apai or New Zealand. The forecast period is extended to 20 January. Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. South of Kermadecs Mag 6 risk remains. Update. 16 January 1.30pm 15 January. East of East Cape 4.8 4.21pm Hunga Ha'apai 5.8 5.14pm USGS + major eruption VEI5. The forecast period has started with a bang. Shock waves from the ongoing eruption of Hunga Ha'apai beginning 20 December 2021 have rocked the South Pacific. New Zealanders as far south as Stewart Island felt or heard a series of shocks following the eruption. A tsunami has swept Tonga and Southern Fiji and some low lying atolls are likely to have been swept clean. Communication with Nukualofa is down but bad news lies ahead. The tsunami was apparently 2.5meters in Vanuatu, 0.8meters at Surfers Paradise. Vulcanologists have rated the eruption VEI5 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. VEI5 is the size of Tarawera 1886, St. Helens 1980 but not as big as Pinatubo 1991 VEI6. The East of East Cape 4.8 an hour earlier indicates pressure along the Kermadec and Tonga Ridges and giving good forecast success early in the period. Spaceweather from a coronal hole windstream arrived on cue, driving a decent sized Kp6 geomagnetic storm. More spaceweather from coronal hole and minor filamentary eruptions is due about now. Quakes and eruptions may pick up in response, including Hunga Ha'apai. Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand continues. North Island higher risk. South of Wanganui, Lake Wairarapa, Turakirae Head, Pyke River are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Possibility degassing, minor steam eruption at White Island continues. Possibility minor quake swarms, heating at Ruapehu continues. Forecast. 15-16 January 2022. Magnitude 6 risk location is South of Kermadec Islands. Magnitude 4 risk locations are East Cape, Gisborne, Wairoa, Waipukurau, Masterton, Taihape, Taupo, Whakatane, Rotorua, Taumarunui, Taranaki, Kapiti, Cape Campbell, Kaikoura, St Arnaud, North of D"Urville Island, Nelson, Kahurangi, Fiordland, Northwest of Snares Islands. Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. Confidence=low. Seismic swarming or volcanic heating is possible at White Island, Ruapehu later in the period. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
