Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 11 November 2014 - 13 November 2014

11-13 November, 2014. Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 5+ risk areas are East Cape. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Bay of Plenty, Taranaki Bight, Northern Wairarapa, Fiordland. Activity in Fiordland may not begin until 13 November. Watch out for Mag 6+ activity in Central Chile, Sumatra. Global volcanic activity may increase later or soon after the end of the forecast period. NZ volcanoes quiet. Summary. 10 Nov. Bardarbunga 5.0, south of Tanna 6.1. 11 Nov. kermadecs 5.6, North of East Cape 4.9, Chile 5.8. 13 Nov. Whitianga 4.4?, Fiji 6.0. 14 Nov. Northland 4.4, NZ Mag 3 swarm. Bardarbunga 5.2. 16 Nov. Bardarbunga 5.1, North Wairarapa 3.9.
17 Nov. Kermadecs 4.7, East of East Cape 6.7 USGS, Haast 3.7, Solomon Islands 6.1, south of Easter Island 5.4, south of Africa 6.2. 19 Nov. East of East Cape 4.0, 4.2, 4.5, 4.4., 4.7
Two more successful forecasts. 11-13 Nov. East Cape almost got to Mag 5 although Mag 4 forecastd areas further south didin't happen. A Mag 3 swarm hit NZ a little late on 14 Nov. Global quake activity increased but don't read too much into forecasted locations. Volcanic and weather activity was dramatic during the forecasted periods. 17-18 Nov. (posted on Facebook link but not here) was another great timing success but the forecasted Fiordland location wasn't quite near the big 6.7 East Cape widely felt across the North Island. You decide.