Pacific Forecast Updated. 17 January 2022 - 24 January 2022
17 January. Kilauea lava lake increase. 22 January. Offshore Kyushu 6.3 5.08am Molucca Sea 6.0 3.26pm Aleutian Islands 6.2 6.17pm The late quake pickup has occurred on 22 January, meeting some forecast parameters. Location success is scratchy although the Aleutians 6.2 has been an active region since the 28 July 2021 Mag 8.2. Good timing success though on 22 January, conditions picking up as the period ends. The fluctuations of the Kilauea lava lake with the big Pacific eruptions, including Wolf and Hunga Ha'apai has resulted in a new breakout at the lava lake. The period has been relatively quiet if you don't include Hunga Ha'apai, Kilauea and Wolf. The 2021-2022 global volcanic period hasn't ended yet. Spaceweather has returned to background levels until late 26 January. Quakes are likely to be isolated on 25 January. An update or new forecast will be posted on 26 January. Update. 21 January 11.45am 17 -21 January. Ongoing eruption Wolf. 21 January. 20km North of Hunga Ha'apai 4.8 9.05am Pacific quakes and volcanos are quiet. No sign of any eruption at Hunga Ha'apai on weather or seismic maps. Nearby Tofua is slightly heated with a high thermal anomaly. All the volcanos are linked along the Tonga Ridge...when one heats up others will also heat up. Kermadecs Ridge volcano White Island regularly becomes hot at the same time as Volcanic Plateau volcanos. A Mag 4.8 quake 20km north of Hunga Ha'apai has come at the same time as the Kawerau 4.7 this morning. The solar windstream driving the action is now fading and the point when quakes tend to pick up again. The forecast period is extended to 22 January. Small eruptions may resume at Hunga Ha'apai. Tofua shows no sign of erupting. Minor degassing or steam is possible with lava high in the crater and favourable solar driving conditions. The lava lake at Kilauea is still fluctuating. Wolf is in ongoing eruption, lava has nearly reached the ocean. Pacific background tremor is very high. A big Pacific eruption or quake is possible next 2-3 days due to the high tremor...not necessarily Hunga Ha'apai. Navy ships carrying heavy lift choppers, water, medicine and supplies are arriving at Nuku'alofa today from New Zealand to help the Tongan Navy. Update. 19 January 4.30pm Pacific quakes are quiet. Hunga Ha'apai has gone back to occasional small eruptions. Mixed news from remote Tongan Islands as the RNZAF overflight revealed huge damage but few casualties so far. The tsunami was 15 meters high near the volcano according to anecdotal reports and swept 100 meters into most western coastal areas on many islands and right over one low atoll. Tongans knew Hunga Ha'apai was in solid eruption in the days leading to the 15 January big bang. Nobody missed the explosive shock and Mag 5.8 quake, giving time to get away to a safer place. This may account for the low casualties so far. Ash blankets every island and evacuations are underway. Navy ships and Hercules aircraft are heading to Tonga from New Zealand today. USA and Australia Forces are also involved in the relief effort. The tsunami swept the Pacific, landing on the other side as a meter high swell. Spaceweather is high and steady today. Coronal hole wind enhancements and a small CME have kept conditions moving along. Spaceweather is likely to slowly ease next 2-3 days as the typically more active end of the forecast period approaches. Volcanic activity has been quiet apart from Hunga Ha'apai. Volcanos may pick up as the end of the solar windstream passes. Hunga Ha'apai may have another eruption although another VEI5 bomb seems unlikely. Grimsvotn is added to risk volcanos. Heating and tremor may occur at White Island and Ruapehu. Update. 17 January 11.00am 17 January. Offshore Bougainville 6.1 1.52am Spaceweather has picked up overnight but only slightly. The solar windstream is now likely to last several more days. Quake activity typically eases during the middle of long quake periods, picking up again as the period ends. No location success from the Bougainville 6.1 but the 400km depth of the quake indicates more action is possible at Bougainville or New Britain later in the period. Eruptions at Hunga Ha'apai have resumed but at the level before the big 15 January bomb. The 15 January eruption was very explosive, suggesting sea water was involved and possibly marked by the collapse of the crater. Now that the crater is open and flooded with seawater the likelihood of another explosive eruption seems less likely. Forecast. 17-18 January 2022. Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, South of Fiji, Northern Vanuatu, Molucca Sea, Banda Sea, Mentawai, Northeast of Honshu, Attu Island, Northern California, Southern California, South Sandwich Islands. Volcanic activity may increase. Kilauea, Wolf, Hunga Ha'apai, Fagradalsfjall, Nyiragongo. The major VEI5 5.14pm 15 January Hunga Ha'apai eruption occurred before this forecast was posted. Hunga Ha'apai is in near constant eruption since 20 December 2021. Eruptions look set to continue for a few days yet, hopefully smaller. The lava lake at Kilauea is fluctuating with the eruptions of Wolf and Hunga Ha'apai and may continue to fluctuate next few days. New coronal hole windstreams and a minor coronal mass ejection from a filamentary eruption are due tonight. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
