Aotearoa Forecast Updated. 7 February 2022 - 8 February 2022
7 February. Havelock 4.2 2.30am NW Snares Islands 4.6 5.29pm Puysegur Point 3.6 10.32pm EMSC (NW Snares 3.8 Geonet) 8 February. Paekakariki 3.7 9.07am This forecast picked up a quake period after it was nearly over. Tricky solar conditions are making for difficult forecast conditions. Regardless, quakes came on 7 February with good but obvious risk location success at Snares Islands and better success at Puysegur Point. Conflicting data from EMSC and Geonet at Puysegur Point but EMSC is nearly always the forecasters preferred option over Geonet. Risk locations were narrowed in the North Island from previous forecasts and quakes fell outside risk locations (Murphys Law) Ruapehu has only minor volcanic tremor and the crater lake heating peak has probably passed. No announcements from the volcanologists today so the lake is probably cooling. No Pacific forecast was offered but quakes were below Mag 6. Globally volcanos remain very active with several new but minor eruptions at Ebeko, Lewotolo, Krakatau, Ambae, Santiaguito. A moderate filament eruption from Earth facing sunspot AR2939 may arrive at Earth 10 February, creating a tectonic response. Forecast. 7 February 2022. Magnitude 6 risk location is South of Kermadec Islands. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Northwest of Snares Islands, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Pyke River. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Doubtful Sound, Bligh Sound, Offshore Milford Sound, Cascade River, Landsborough River, Upper Matukituki River, Kahurangi, Inland Kaikouras, Cape Campbell, Southern Cook Strait, North of D"Urville Island, South of Wanganui, Masterton, Waipukurau, Wairoa, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Kawerau. Minor quake swarm possible Ruapehu. Background spaceweather levels have been very high without any significant solar flares for several days. A 6 February significant NW of Snares 5.2 is likely part of a quake spell already underway. The 7 February forecast is a continuation of the period. The forecast perod is likely to be extended. Forecast confidence=low. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
