Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 14 March 2022 - 18 March 2022

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The forecast was posted just as Mag 6 quakes occurred at Sumatra and Philippines but in the end quakes never came to New Zealand.
Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu suddenly increased during the period.
The crater lake is probably in a cooling phase during March...the vulcanologists don't release lake temperature data to the public.
Ruapehu usually erupts from a hot lake >45C but has erupted from a cold lake <30C in the past.
The 1969 Ruapehu eruption came from a cold lake and was forecasted by French seismologist Claude Blot.
Spaceweather is weak again today but slightly turbulent so volcanic tremor at Ruapehu seems likely to also fade next few days.

Forecast. 14-15 March 2022.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest of Snares Islands, Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Pyke River, Cascade River, Lower Arawhata River, Kahurangi, Lake Coleridge, Waipukurau.
Volcanos quiet.
North Island confidence=low.
Moderate Kp6 geomagnetic storming is underway with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection from sunspot AR2964 on 11 March.
Pacific quakes have been very low for several weeks and may uptick today.
California remains Mag 6 risk during any quake period.