Aotearoa Forecast Updated. 20 March 2022 - 21 March 2022
20 March. Ward 4.5 Ruapehu high tremor. Lake temperature 31C rising. The forecast period has brought ropey success as the plot rapidly thickens at Ruapehu. Spaceweather picked up 20 March with the arrival of filamentary coronal mass ejection and good forecast success from typically tricky to forecast erupting filaments. Another very weak filamentary coronal mass ejection may arrive in the next day or two but the period is largely over. Quakes have picked up late in the period with good timing success but no location success at Ward 4.5 Not including Cape Campbell as Mag 4 risk location along with North Island East Coast risk locations was a lazy forecast mistake. Vulcanologists have raised Ruapehu to Alert Level 2. Ruapehu crater lake is 31C and heating slowly. Eruption temperature is typically 45C although strong spaceweather can drive an eruption from a cold lake. Volcanic tremor increased dramatically at Ruapehu during the 13 March Kp6 geomagnetic storm. Volcanic tremor is very high but stable. Spaceweather is weakening today and an eruption seems more likely in a week or two when the lake is 40C or hotter and new spaceweather arrives. Degassing or minor steam eruption seems possible next days. Forecast. 20-21 March 2022. Magnitude 4 risk locations are East Cape, Tolaga Bay, Hastings, Waipukurau, Woodville, Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound. Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu is high and sustained. Possibility degassing or minor steam eruption next few days. Crater lake temperature is unavailable. Vulcanologists may make an announcement soon. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
