Aotearoa Forecast Updated. 28 March 2022 - 7 April 2022
5 April. 40km NW Kapiti Island 3.6 10.16am Ruapehu 36C Local quakes are very busy but low magnitude. Biggest quake NW of Kapiti 3.6 is balanced by busy East Coast North Island quakes. Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu has risen dramatically during the period and still rising today. Vulcanologists announced the crater lake is slowly heating to 36C with gas and other eruption parameters mild. White Island developed weak volcanic tremor during the period but it is fading again today. Mild degassing at White Island is possible if the 3 April solar filament eruption arrives later today or tomorrow. Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu seems likely to increase with or without a geomagnetic storm.... The forecast period is extended to 7 April. Mag 5 New Zealand possible. Confidence = low. Update. 4 April 5.00pm Local and Pacific quakes are quiet. Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu suddenly increased with the arrival of the 2 April geomagnetic storm and is now very high. A Mag 1 mini quake swarm is underway at the summit. An eruption at Ruapehu is another step closer. Tremor at White Island increased on 2 April although vulcanologists lowered the volcano to Alert Level 1 today. New mild spaceweather up to Kp5 is possible with the expected arrival on 6 April of a final coronal mass ejection from sunspot AR2975 before it rotates around to the far side of the Sun. Quakes are quiet today but it is too early to drop the forecast following several days of geomagnetic storms. The forecast period is extended to 6 April. Mag 5 risk New Zealand remains. Confidence=low. Update. 2 April 1.00am 1 April. Lower Hawdon River 4.8 11.36pm The first of two coronal mass ejections from sunspot AR2795 created a mere Kp5 geomagnetic storm before magnetically disconnecting. The magnetic connection Bz south returned tonight and a quake has followed. The second coronal mass ejection is forecast to arrive late 2 March and could be bigger than the first underwhelming solar storm. The Hawdon River 4.8 was roughly within the Lake Coleridge risk location and may be precursor for a Mag 5 quake in the area when the second solar storm arrives. Tremor at Ruapehu remains very high. Mild tremor continues at White Island. Activity may increase with the arrival of the second solar storm. The forecast period is extended to 3 April. Hawdon River is higher Mag 5 risk. Update. 31 March 4.00pm Local quakes and volcanos have remained quiet ahead of a major geomagnetic storm. Sunspot 2975 has fired several small flares since the 28 March M4, M1 double flares. Today 2975 has fired an impulsive flare with a small coronal mass ejection but another high energy proton storm. The coronal mass ejection from the M4, M1 double flares is arriving at Earth as this forecast is posted. Several days of strong geomagnetic storms are likely. Quakes are likely to pick up strongly today. East Cape, Gisborne, Wairoa, Inland Northern Hawkes Bay, are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand next few days. Volcanic tremor has begun at White Island and very high volcanic tremor continues at Ruapehu. Steam or ash eruptions are possible at Ruapehu and White Island later in the period. Eruptions tend to follow quakes. Update. 29 March 11.30am Local quakes and volcanos are quiet. A small Kp4 geomagnetic storm began on cue with the arrival of a coronal hole windstream but hasn't been strong enough to drive any tectonic action. No sign of the minor coronal mass ejection from sunspot AR2974. Vulcanologists at Ruapehu have announced the crater lake is heating only slowly and now at 32C...last week it was 31C. They think the vent is blocked and preventing heat from rising. The crater lake is probably in a cooling phase since the early February temperature peak so the arrival of the 13 March Kp6 geomagnetic storm has probably halted the long term cooling phase usually lasting a few months. Tremor at Ruapehu has remained very high since the 13 March Kp6 geomagnetic storm. Earth facing sunspot AR2975 has flared strongly today. The long duration M4 flare and high proton storm has fired toward Earth and is due to arrive by late on 30 March. A substantial Kp6/7 geomagnetic storm is likely and a good night for auroras in the South Island. Global quake and volcanic activity is likely to pick up with the arrival of the solar storm. Steam or ash eruption at Ruapehu and White Island possible. North Canterbury, Lake Coleridge are added to Mag 4 risk locations. The period is likely to continue for several more days. Sunspot AR2975 and nearby sunspot AR2976 are likely to flare again soon and could X flare. Forecast. 28-29 March, 2022. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Southern Kahurangi, Nelson Lakes, Cape Campbell, Kapiti, Northwest of D'Urville Island, South of Wanganui, Eketahuna, Waipukurau, Hastings, Taihape, Taupo, Murupara, Rotorua, Kawerau, Whakatane, Opotiki. Possibility degas or minor steam eruption at White Island, Ruapehu. Moderate spaceweather from a coronal hole windstream and minor M1 flare from sunspot AR2974 is here and may continue for a few days. Continuous strong volcanic tremor at Ruapehu since the 14 March Kp6 geomagnetic storm may increase. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
