Pacific Forecast Updated 1 April 2022 - 7 April 2022
5 April. 40km NW Efate 6.0 4.06am Fagradalsfjall Mag 3.3 +swarm. Spaceweather has become patchy last few days with mixed forecast success. Two coronal mass ejections and solar storms from sunspot 2795 on 31 March mostly missed Earth, conditions briefly reached Kp5 on 2 April. A third coronal mass ejection from a filament eruption near the Sun's equator on 3 April is Earth directed and due to arrive within a day. A mild geomagnetic storm Kp5 later today or tomorrow could give the forecast period a last push from Sunspot 2795 as it goes around to the far side of the Sun. Quakes and eruptions are mostly subdued although a buildup may still be underway which could release with another mild geomagnetic storm. The forecast period is extended to 7 April. Update. 1 April 11.00pm 31 March. South of Vanuatu 6.9 9.56am. Quake occurs before forecast is posted at 5.05pm. South of Vanuatu 7.0 6.44pm 1 April. South of Vanuatu 6.3 8.50am The arrival of a coronal mass ejection from sunspot AR2975 turned out to be much weaker than expected. A brief Kp5 geomagnetic storm ended when the magnetic field swung north and the connection to Earth's magnetic field was broken. South of Vanuatu 7.0 came with the storm, adding to a Mag 6.9 precursor earlier in the day and good forecast success from an otherwise quiet Pacific. Quakes went quiet with the magnetic disconnection which stayed like that until tonight...a long time. The magnetic field has reconnected strongly tonight but particle density is close to zero behind the shock wave and the solar wind is very weak. Isolated quakes are possible with the magnetic reconnection tonight. A second shock wave is due late 2 April following two more flares from sunspot 2975. The 30 March X1 flare was followed on 31 March by an M9 flare and coronal mass ejection. The 2 April solar shock could be stronger than the 31 March shock. The forecast period is extended to 3 April. Southern Kuril Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Taal is added to volcanos. Forecast. 1 April 2022. Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Fiji, South of Vanuatu, Sunda Strait, Okinawa, East of Fukushima, California, Colima, Guerrero, Northern Peru, Atacama. New eruptions may begin at Ruapehu, White Island, Krakatau, Purace. Volcanic tremor may increase at Sao Jorge, Azore Islands. Ongoing eruptions at Kilauea and Wolf may increase. The period is likely to be extended for several days due to ongoing solar storm activity from sunspot AR2975. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
