Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 25 May 2022 - 11 June 2022

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A Pacific Mag 7 spell never came to New Zealand.
The forecast missed most of the quake spell which began 19 May with the arrival of active sunspot AR13014.
A forecast was eventually posted near the end of the quake spell.
Reasonable forecast location success at Mana Island from risk locations weighted into Taranaki Bight.
Quakes went quiet following the departure of sunspot AR13014 on 28 May.
The 11 June Bulls 4.3 follows the casual forecast rule that quakes after a period ends are more likely to be in risk locations from the period.
Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu increased while the sunspot was active, falling suddenly as the sunspot went around the western horizon.
Several increases in volcanic tremor at Ruapehu since March can be traced to geomagnetic activity.
Volcanologists report Ruapehu crater lake has cooled to 28C and tremor has dropped away although CO2 and SO2 gas levels remain high.
Steady Mag 1 swarms at Taupo, Wairakei and West of Ruapehu during the period indicate widespread background pressure on the Volcanic Plateau.
New sunspot activity next few days may be weaker than previously as the March-May aurora season is ending ahead of the Sept-Nov. aurora season.
28 May.
10km NW of Mana Island 3.9 9.04pm
31 May.
10km NW of Mana Island 4.4 11.27am
11 June.
10km SW of Bulls 4.3 9.55am
200km NNE East Cape 5.6 11.07am

Update. 27 May 2.30pm
A Pacific quakestorm has unfolded today but it hasn't come to New Zealand.
Several days of high background Xrays, UV, electron storms, low energy protons have come with passing active sunspot AR13014.
Tectonic activity usually accompanies active sunspots and 3014 has proven to be no exception to the rule.
The sunspot has moved on but new spaceweather from a coronal hole windstream and minor filament eruption could arrive anytime.
Western Taranaki, Arthurs Pass, Upper Rakaia are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Ruapehu quiet.

Update. 25 May 6.30pm
Local and Pacific quakes and volcanos are quiet.
Active BetaGammaDelta sunspot AR13014 is fading. It is no longer Earth facing and weakening.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent ahead of a coronal hole windstream due to arrive 28 May.

Magnitude 5 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Auckland Island, West of Snares Islands.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Doubtful Sound, NW Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Pyke River, Cascade River, Lower Arawhata River, Kahurangi, St. Arnaud, Kaikoura, Cape Campbell, Eastern Cook Strait, Southern Wairarapa, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Offshore Kapiti, Central Taranaki Bight, Taupo, Tokoroa, Whakatane, Tauranga, Offshore Bay of Plenty.
Volcanos quiet.
Intermittent quakes are possible from a quake period that began 19 May.
Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu has eased recently with no geomagnetic storms to drive any action.
Tremor only slightly picked up with sunspot 3014 but probably not enough to drive an eruption.
Mild geomagnetic activity may continue until 28 May as sunspot 3014 moves across the solar disc.
Solar wind and quakes may strengthen from 28 May.
Forecast confidence=low.