Pacific Summary. 25 May 2022 - 10 June 2022
The forecast missed most of the quake spell which began on 19 May with the arrival of active sunspot AR13014 and the Macquarie Island 6.9 The sunspot never fired a big flare but was nevertheless geoeffective...as they always are. The Lake Titicaca 7.2 was merely the endpoint of the quake period, following the casual forecast rule that quakes tend to come more at the beginning and end of the period. Quakes went quiet until 5 June when Mag 6 quakes north and south of New Zealand came within minutes of each other. Uncertainty around the status of volcanos exists. The 2020-2022 global volcanic period which came with very low solar activity may or may not have ended. Solar activity has picked up last three months and eruptions driven by low background solar activity seemed to go slightly off the boil. Activity picked up again during the period with several volcanos including Etna, Manam, Krakatau, Taal and Reykjanes showing signs of increasing activity. Sunspot 3014 left its trace at Ruapehu where volcanic tremor increased during the period. Volcanic and quake activity is likely to become more concentrated around sunspot activity as Solar Cycle 25 advances and easier forecast timing parameters... 27 May. 50km NW Lake Titicaca 7.2 218km 12.02am Hunter Island 6.4 3.37am Southeast Pacific Rise 6.2 6.10am Banda Sea 6.3 2.36pm Eruption Bezymianny 5 June. NW Neiafu 6.3 1.07am West of Macquarie Island 6.4 1.17am Rat Islands 6.3 11.38am 8 June. Upper Amazon 6.5 12.55pm 620km Update. 27 May 1.30pm 27 May. 50km NW Lake Titicaca 7.2 218km 12.02am Hunter Island 6.4 3.37am Southeast Pacific Rise 6.2 6.10am Eruption Bezymianny While New Zealanders slept an overnight Mag 7 Pacific quakestorm has evolved. The addition of Equatorial Pacific Mag 7 risk is justified. The forecast was chasing action in Southern Atacama/Antofagasta and this region remains a risk location for 28 May. Spaceweather has been disturbed for several days as active sunspot 3014 moves around. Electrons, low energy protons, high background UV and Xray levels all came from the fizzing sunspot which has now weakened and moved on. Moderate new spaceweather may arrive 28 May from a coronal hole windstream and minor filament eruption. Pacific quakes may remain active, including New Zealand. South America is higher risk. Valparaiso, Offshore Southern Peru are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Bismarck Sea, Antofagasta, Hunter Island remain Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 25 May 6.30pm Pacific quakes are quiet. Solar wind is weakening as Sunspot AR13014 passes toward the western horizon without flaring. Background Pacific tremor is high and a late big equatorial quake seems possible. The forecast period is extended to 26 May. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Auckland Island, Kermadec Islands, South of Fiji, Fiji, Hihifo, South of Vanuatu, Vanuatu, New Britain, Bismarck Sea, Molucca Sea, Luzon, Southeast of Honshu, Offshore Hokkaido, Northern Ecuador, Southern Colombia, South of Atacama. Volcanic activity may increase. Manam, Taal. The period began 19 May and may continue until 28 May when new spaceweather may arrive. Forecast confidence=low. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
