Pacific Summary. 15 July 2022 - 31 July 2022
The long forecast period was chasing follow on action from the very significant 13 July Easter Microplate 6.8 + sequence. Spaceweather had faded following the Easter Microplate 6.8 and quakes faded in response. The forecast was probably better dropped and a new forecast started when new spaceweather arrived 22 July. The forecast patiently persisted with the same South America risk locations. By the end of the forecast period several quakes in South America justified it as higher risk location. Despite many South America risk locations offered, none were correct in the end and the drawn out forecast got messy. Regardless, grainy evidence exists for the 13 July Easter Microplate 6.8 sequence as precursor for the late July quake period. The Luzon/Philippines 7.1 came at the height of period, leaving collapsed buildings and many casualties. Mag 7 is rare in 2022. 4 this year so far and about half of average. The 5 year Solar Minimum period is ending in 2022 as sunspots reappear and quakes will inevitably increase again too. 2022 may yet end up with above average Mag 7 quakes when an active spring equinox aurora season begins in a few weeks. Pacific volcanos became briefly active following the Easter Microplate 6.8. The 22 July Sakurajima eruption was possibly the biggest in 20 years according to a local professor. Iceland volcanos Bardarbunga and Fagradalsfjall had quake swarms during the period. Solar activity, Pacific quakes and eruptions are likely to remain subdued next few weeks. 16 July. West Chile Rise 6.4 7.37am 23 July. Eruption Sakurajima, Shiveluch, Krakatau, Stromboli. 25 July. South of Kermadec Islands 5.7 1.09pm 26 July. Northern Ecuador/San Gabriel 5.7 1.33am New Zealand/East Cape 5.3 10.30pm 27 July. Philippines/Northern Luzon 7.1 12.43pm 28 July. Southern Atacama 6.2 6.58am Offshore Southern Atacama 6.1 4.15pm Forecast Update. 28 July 1.00pm 26 July. New Zealand/East Cape 5.3 10.30pm 27 July. Philippines/Northern Luzon 7.1 12.43pm 28 July. Southern Atacama 6.2 6.58am Quakes have come alive in the Pacific right at the end of the forecast period. 3 days of moderate Kp5 geomagnetic storms 22-24 July have finally brought a brief but strong tectonic response. The Luzon 7.1 has luckily only taken a few lives and is only the 4th world Mag 7 in 2022...about half the normal number. Extending the forecast period to 27 July is justified although no location success at Philippines. Todays Atacama 6.2 was in the higher risk South America location at least but frustratingly out of the pinpointed risk locations. Spaceweather has faded away today and quakes are likely to fade away too. Volcanos apparently quiet. Forecast Update. 26 July 2.00pm 23 July. Eruption Sakurajima, Shiveluch, Krakatau, Stromboli. 25 July. South of Kermadec Islands 5.7 1.09pm 26 July. Northern Ecuador/San Gabriel 5.7 1.33am Mild spaceweather from a coronal hole windstream and a small filament eruption arrived on cue. Two spells of moderate Kp5 geomagnetic storms haven't driven much quake action but volcanic action instead. Sakurajima had one of its biggest eruptions in 20 years according to a local professor at Kyoto. Krakatau has been steadily heating in July according to Indonesian seismologists with steady small strombolian eruptions. Double 4.9, 4.4 quakes at Iceland giant volcano Bardarbunga. Pacific quakes are under Mag 6 during the period. The addition of South of Kermadecs and Ecuador to risk locations is justified despite low magnitude. A late weak solar filament coronal mass ejection has arrived at Earth today and could drive some late mild quakes or a late eruption more likely before fading away. The forecast period is extended to 27 July. Quakes are likely to be infrequent. Forecast Update. 23 July 12.00am Pacific quakes are quiet ahead of a coronal hole windstream and solar filament coronal mass ejection due at Earth about now. The forecast is mostly a rerun of the same risk locations following the 13 July Easter Microplate 6.8 and Pacific deep quake sequence when nothing happened. Spaceweather has picked up for the first time on 21 July and likely to strengthen again, possibly to Kp6. Volcanos seem to be mostly quiet with no new eruptions. The 2020-2022 Solar Minimum global volcanic period may be ending as solar activity picks up strongly in 2022 and sunspots return. Auckland Island, South of Kermadec Islands, South of Vanuatu, Okinawa, Ecuador, Valparaiso are added to Mag 6 risk locations. South America is higher Mag 6 risk. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Forecast Updated. 20 July 12.00pm 16 July. West Chile Rise 6.4 7.37am No significant quakes have arrived from the Easter Microplate 6.8 sequence and Pacific deep quake sequence so far. Spaceweather has been very turbulent. Several periods of minor Kp4/5 geomagnetic storms from weak filament eruptions blowing past Earth are likely to continue next two days ahead of a possibly strong coronal hole windstream early 23 July. Pacific quakes seem likely to remain quiet until 23 July. Offshore Northern Peru, South of Valdivia are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Forecast. 15 July 2022. A significant 13 July Easter Microplate 6.8 + sequence is being followed by a Pacific deep quake sequence. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Northern Tonga, Bougainville, New Britain, New Ireland, Bismarck Sea, Molucca Sea, Mentawai, Eastern Himalaya, Southern Iran, South of Nagoya, Northern Marianas Islands/Anatahan, Southern Peru/La Capilla, North of Valparaiso. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Earth facing sunspots 3053 and 3055 are low level flaring with background C1 Xray level and Kp5 geomagnetic storm on 12 July. 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