Aotearoa Summary. 23 July 2022 - 31 July 2022
Action moved south to the East Cape 5.3 the next day and into the South Island next morning, continuing south from Kaikoura to Fiordland. Quake energy is directional, being most obvious during larger events like quakestorms. Mild residual quakes followed at Waipawa and Otira. Good location and timing success... except for not adding East Cape to risk locations following the South of Kermadecs 5.7. Mild Kp5 storms made no obvious difference to volcanic tremor at Ruapehu although it is a hard read on SSAM due to a lot of bad weather in the area obscuring the seismic signal. Interesting small increase in an ongoing Taranaki low magnitude swarm came with the geomagnetic storm however and an acknowledgement from seismologists of an ongoing quake swarm at Lake Taupo and Aratiatia. The busy local quake and forecast period came along with a very busy Pacific Mag 7 quake period. Solar activity is now low ahead of the spring equinox aurora season due September-November. Local quakes are likely to be infrequent in August. 25 July. South of Kermadecs 5.7 1.09pm 26 July. Cromwell 3.8 9.36am East Cape 5.3 10.30pm 27 July. 50km Southeast of Kaikoura 3.8 8.01am Mt Tutoko 3.5 9.24am Upper Cascade River 3.5 10.48am 28 July. Waipawa 3.7 4.33am 29 July. 10km South of Otira 4.1 7.30am Update. 28 July 2.00pm 26 July. East Cape 5.3 10.30pm 27 July. 50km Southeast of Kaikoura 3.8 8.01am Mt Tutoko 3.5 9.24am Upper Cascade River 3.5 10.48am 28 July. Waipawa 3.7 4.33am The forecast period has briefly and strongly sprung to life following 3 days of moderate geomagnetic storms 22-24 July. A mild quakestorm has spread through New Zealand following the East Cape 5.3 and the South of Kermadecs 5.7 before that. Good location success except for the East Cape 5.3. Not adding East Cape to risk locations following the South of Kermadecs 5.7 was a forecast mistake. Local seismologists have announced the North Island has been in a slow slip sequence for a few months. They have also announced the ongoing Taupo quake swarm, noting that they occur regularly. Spaceweather is fading away today and quakes are likely to also fade away. South of Kermadecs remains Mag 5 risk. 26 July. Cromwell 3.8 9.36am Mild Kp5 spaceweather arrived on cue but has driven a mostly mild Pacific volcanic period and few quakes. The addition of South of Kermadecs to Pacific Mag 6 risk locations is justified. Late mild spaceweather arriving today may bring a late local quake before fading away. Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu remains steady but at low levels. The forecast period is extended to 27 July. Quakes are likely to be infrequent, Mag 5 unlikely. Forecast. 23 July 2022. Mag 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, South of Kermadec Islands. Mag 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Pyke River, Cascade River, Lake Coleridge, St. Arnaud, Nelson, Cape Campbell, North of D'Urville Island, West of Kapiti, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, South of Hastings. Local volcanologists announced on 4 July that volcanic tremor at Ruapehu had ended and lowered the volcano to Alert Level 1. Continuous low level volcanic tremor ironically resumed on 5 July and may increase slightly if geomagnetic storms reach Kp6 during the forecast period. Small ongoing quake swarms at Taranaki, West of Ruapehu, Lake Taupo may increase slightly if Kp6 geomagnetic storms arrive. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
