Pacific Summary. 29 October 2022 - 19 November 2022
Quakes were very slow to react although gave interesting results from a rare 1500km West of California 6.0 quake with Gulf of California 6.1 the next day. Steady long lived spaceweather finally created a quake release on 9 November when South of Fiji, Tonga went Mag 7 and several other Pacific Mag 6 risk locations going off. Persisting with the forecast through the mid period quiet spell paid off with great risk location success in the end. Active Earth facing sunspot 1341 bathed Earth in Xrays for several days from 11 November, prolonging the period for a few more days. Solar Cycle 25 is rapidly moving into its ascendant phase and quakes are following suit. Mild new spaceweather is arriving today and may drive a new quake period. There are some spaceweather forecasting uncertainties so the new forecast period will be low confidence. 2 November. 1500km West of Southern California 6.0 5.53pm 3 November. South Sandwich Islands 6.1 3.17am 4 November. Gulf of California 6.1 11.02pm 9 November. South of Fiji/Louisville 6.8 10.38pm 630km South of Fiji/Louisville 7.0 10.51pm South of Fiji/Louisville 6.6 11.14pm 11 November. 200km ESE Neiafu 7.3 11.48pm 12 November. 400km Southeast of Viti Levu 7.0 8.09pm 590km 13 November. 50km Northeast of East Cape 4.7 11.21am 25km Offshore Valdivia 6.4 3.24pm 14 November. Louisville 6.1 6.04pm 630km Japan/South of Toba 6.1 9.08pm 19 November. Offshore Southwest Sumatra 6.9 2.37am Update. 15 November 11.30am 14 November. Louisville 6.1 6.04pm 630km Japan/South of Toba 6.1 9.08pm The huge Pacific quake period continues for another day. Good risk location success at Japan 6.1 Spaceweather is easing. Active sunspots 3140 and 3141 could still flare moderately but are no longer Earth facing. Coronal hole 1112 has moved on and solar wind is nearing background level below 400km/second. Regardless, the period has been too big to let go today and high Xray effects from the sunspots continue. The forecast period is extended to 15 November. Update. 13 November 4.30pm 12 November. 400km Southeast of Viti Levu 7.0 8.09pm 590km 13 November. 50km Northeast of East Cape 4.7 11.21am 25km Offshore Valdivia 6.4 3.24pm A major Southwest Pacific Mag 7 quake period has evolved from 9 November following a sustained buildup lasting eleven days, the start of the forecast period. Just another deep Mag 7 SE of Fiji just on half time at the rugby game has justified the extension of the forecast period and also a forecast risk location.. New Zealand is busy with Mag 3 quakes along North Island East Coast at East Cape, Wairoa, North Wairarapa and also Cape Campbell, Whakatane. Mag 4/5 is possible 13-14 November North Island. Excellent risk location success at Offshore Valdivia 6.4 which finally moved 9 days after being added to risk locations on 4 November. Spaceweather is weakening today so the Mag 7 period won't last much longer. Coronal hole CH1112 has faded away and Earth facing sunspot AR13141 is beginning to decay but could still flare in the next day or two. The forecast period is extended to 14 November. SW Pacific, including East Cape remains higher Mag 6 risk. Update. 12 November 10.00am 11 November. 200km ESE Neiafu 7.3 11.48pm A weak solar windstream from Coronal Hole 1112 arrived on cue, driving more big action at Tonga. The 4 November forecast outlook speculated a quake buildup following days of moderate solar wind with no quakes. A quake release from 9 November is underway. The 9 November Louisville 7.0 sequence was likely modulated by Full Moon which came just one hour later although near apogee. Full Moon position is directly within Earth's magnetotail, influencing incoming solar wind. Good risk location success at Tonga despite risk locations not changing since 29 October due to the buildup. Earth facing sunspot AR3141 is active with minor flares and likely also a contributor to the quake uptick. A sequence of deep quakes at Vanuatu, Bonin Islands, Upper Amazon has come with the Tonga 7.3. Solar wind is weakening today although with sunspot AR3141 active quake driving conditions still exist. Isolated Pacific quakes are possible 12 November. SW Pacific including Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, New Britain, Bismarck Sea are higher risk. Update. 11 November 12.30pm 9 November. South of Fiji/Louisville 6.8 10.38pm 630km South of Fiji/Louisville 7.0 10.51pm South of Fiji/Louisville 6.6 11.14pm The period has ended with a big deep Mag 7 sequence and the possibility of ongoing regional activity possibly today if a mild brief period of solar wind arrives from coronal hole 1112. Kermadec Ridge, Vanuatu, East Cape, Bismarck Sea are higher risk. Update. 6 November 11.30am 4 November. Gulf of California 6.1 11.02pm The forecast speculation that a migration from the rare 2 November West of California 6.0 into California was possible could be justified with the arrival of the Gulf of California 6.1. Despite this apparent forecast success the period has otherwise been very quiet from moderate spaceweather and a good one for the sceptics. Solar wind is falling back to below 400km/second today as the end of the long lived but moderate solar windstream draws near. Isolated Pacific Mag 6 quakes are possible 6-7 November, the last day of the forecast period. Update. 4 November 1.30pm 2 November. 1500km West of Southern California 6.0 5.53pm 3 November. South Sandwich Islands 6.1 3.17am Pacific quakes were mild ahead of moderate Kp5 geomagnetic storming with the arrival of a solar windstream from Coronal Hole 1111. A rare big quake location 1500km west of Southern California could take a migratory path into Alaska or California which is already a risk location... or it may not migrate. Pacific quakes may increase 4-5 November with the new solar wind. The period has become long with a steady spaceweather buildup but limited quake release. A Pacific quake buildup may be underway. Alaska, South of Antofagasta, Northern Vanuatu, Molucca Sea, Offshore Eastern Honshu are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Update. 2 November 12.00pm Pacific quakes and volcanos are mostly quiet. Solar wind has dropped to 400km/second today from very mild coronal hole windstream conditions which only briefly touched Kp4 geomagnetic response last couple of days. Isolated Pacific Mag 6 quakes may pick up today and tomorrow. Solar wind may pick up again slightly from 4 November when another mild coronal hole windstream reaches Earth. Update. 31 October 12.00pm Mild Kp4/5 geomagnetic storming from a solar coronal hole windstream arrived on cue. Pacific quakes have increased in frequency but remain low magnitude. No response at Mauna Loa. The mild coronal hole windstream may continue for 2-3 days with bigger quakes possible later when the solar windstream slows down to 400km/s from its present 500km/s. The forecast period is extended to 1 November. Forecast. 29-31 October 2022. Mag 6 risk locations are Southern Peru, Northeast of East Cape, Northern Tonga, Guadalcanal, East of Taiwan, Southern Kuril Islands, South of San Francisco. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Southern Peru higher risk. Volcanic activity may increase. Northern Tonga, Mauna Loa. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
