Aotearoa Summary. 29 October 2022 - 19 November 2022
The period began on cue with Mag 5 in the South Island, followed by the typical mid period quiet spell up until 9 November when a very significant Mag 7 sequence unfolded in the Tonga, South of Fiji region. Spaceweather remained at Kp4/5 for several days prior to the 9 November quake release, indicating a quake period was building. Fortunately big quakes didn't migrate into New Zealand during the big quake sequence further north although quake hotspots Whakatane, Wairoa and Northern Wairarapa became very busy at lower magnitude. Active Earth facing sunspot 1341 took over spaceweather from 11 November, prolonging the period for a few more days. Mild solar wind from Coronal Hole 1113 is due 19 November and may drive Kp4 geomagnetic conditions. A local forecast map is being processed. New Zealand is Mag 5 risk. 29 October. Northwest of Snares Islands 4.0 12.59am EMSC 30 October. Upper D'Urville River 5.3 12.35pm (5.0 EMSC) 31 October. Northnortheast of East Cape 4.2 10.27am 2 November. 50km West of Puysegur Point 4.7 12.58am 3 November. 100km North of Te Kaha 4.0 1.49pm 4 November. Lake Taupo/North of Motutere 3.6 8.07am + swarm. 6 November. North of East Cape 4.0 5.22am 8 November. 70km northeast of White Island 4.1 9.08pm 9 November. Tarawera 4.0 5.33pm 120km USGS 15 Nov. 60km Northwest of Whakatane 4.5 8.03pm 17 November. Northeast of East Cape 4.3 2.42pm 19 November. 60km Southeast of Castlepoint 4.0 10.34am Update. 15 November 11.00am 8 November. 70km northeast of White Island 4.1 9.08pm 9 November. Tarawera 4.0 5.33pm 120km USGS The Mag 7 Tonga/Louisville/Fiji quake sequence has mostly stayed out of New Zealand. Quake frequency has increased in typical North Island seismic hotspots Northern Wairarapa, East Cape, Wairoa and Whakatane. Spaceweather is easing today. Active sunspot pair 3140 and 3141 could still flare moderately but are no longer Earth facing. Coronal hole 1112 is gone and solar wind is approaching background levels below 400km/second. The period has been massive however so the forecast period is extended to 15 November. South Island locations may see some Mag 4 action along the Southern Alps next day. Update. 11 November 11.30am 8 November. 70km northeast of White Island 4.1 9.08pm 9 November. Tarawera 4.0 5.33pm 120km USGS The period has ended with a deep quake near Tarawera followed 5 hours later by a 630km deep South of Fiji/Louisville 7.0, 6.8, 6.6 sequence. Spaceweather is at background levels today but could change briefly. A brief period of mild solar wind from Coronal Hole 1112 may arrive today. Isolated Mag 5/6 quakes are possible along Kermadecs Ridge and East Cape with the arrival of solar wind. Update. 6 November 11.30am 6 November. North of East Cape 4.0 5.22am Local quakes are easing as the end of the period draws near. Solar wind is dropping back to its background level below 400km/second, following the 4 November Kp5 mild geomagnetic storm. Isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible today and early tomorrow. Update. 4 November 1.00pm 3 November. 100km North of Te Kaha 4.0 1.49pm 4 November. Lake Taupo/North of Motutere 3.6 8.07am + swarm. Moderate Kp5 geomagnetic storming has set in today with the arrival of a solar windstream from Coronal Hole 1111. Local quakes have picked up in response with a quake swarm at Lake Taupo. Further isolated Mag 4 quakes seem likely on 5 November. The spaceweather period has been moderate but long lived and a Pacific quake buildup may be underway. Update. 2 November 12.00pm 2 November. 50km West of Puysegur Point 4.7 12.58am A mild quake period continues in the South Island. Solar wind has dropped to 400km/second today, barely reaching Kp4 geomagnetic response last two days. Isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible next two days, including North Island, East Cape. A solar wind pickup is possible late on 4 November from another arriving coronal hole windstream. Quake Summary. 29 October 2022. A local forecast wasn't offered to match the current Pacific forecast. Regardless, a local quake spell occurred and is summarised. Southern Alps north of Mt. Cook have been active last few days. Further isolated Mag 4 quakes north of Mt Cook, including Canterbury High Country are possible when the solar wind drops back in a day or two to 400km/s from its present 500km/s. 29 October. Northwest of Snares Islands 4.0 12.59am EMSC 30 October. Upper D'Urville River 5.3 12.35pm (5.0 EMSC) 31 October. Northnortheast of East Cape 4.2 10.27am Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
