Aotearoa Summary. 27 February 2023 - 5 March 2023
4 March. Perth River 4.5 5.38am 5 March. Lake Taupo 4.4 + swarm 4.13pm The 27 February aurora has brought a long period with widely spaced quakes and some late action. Good risk location success despite the forecast being dropped early. The Perth River 4.5 was just south of Wanganui River risk location. The Taupo swarm is unsurprising given yesterdays 200km deep Kermadec Ridge 6.9 near Raoul Island. More North Island action may follow in the next day or two. The 3am 28 February Gisborne deluge came with the geomagnetic storm. A coronal hole windstream is due at Earth tonight and could activate more quakes in forecast risk locations. Update. 1 March 11.30am 28 February. 3km Northeast of Rarangi 4.8 8.26pm (4.2 USGS, EMSC) A moderate Cook Strait quake gives good timing success but the target risk areas St Arnaud and infrequently forecasted Nelson weren't close enough. Wide disparity in quake magnitude data...somebody has got it wrong. Pacific quakes have been very quiet during the Kp7 geomagnetic storm. A late tectonic response is possible. The forecast period is extended to 1 March. Update. 28 February 10.30am 27 February. Te Kaha 4.2 7.55pm Good early forecast success as a major Kp7 geomagnetic storm unfolds. Local and Pacific quakes have picked up slightly with the onset of Kp7 storm conditions. Spaceweather conditions are likely to continue for the next day at least. The forecast period is extended to 28 February. Tropical Cyclone Judy has formed and gone to Cat 1 since the onset of geomagnetic storms. Forecast. 27 February 2023. Magnitude 5 risk location is Snares Islands. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Fiordland, Pyke River, Cascade River, Wanganui River, Poulter River, St Arnaud, Nelson, North of D'Urville Island, Taupo, Tokoroa, Te Aroha, Whakatane, Te Kaha. Volcanos quiet. A significant Kp6/7 geomagnetic storm is possible. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
