Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 24 April 2023 - 3 May 2023

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An unexpectedly strong Kp8 geomagnetic storm arrived on cue from some moderate filament eruptions and flares near Earth facing sunspot 3283.
Evidence continues to mount for Earth's weakening magnetic field allowing solar storms to impact more easily.
A strong quake period has accompanied the aurora.
Two Mag 7.1 quakes in quick succession.
No location success at Raoul Island 7.1, the forecast went for Tonga instead.
Excellent location success at Mentawai 7.1.
A lengthy quake period in New Zealand followed the Kermadecs 7.1.
A deep quake swarm at Mauna Loa came early in the period.
Mauna Loa has gone quiet again but more quake swarms are possible when new spaceweather arrives early on 7 May.
The substantial 28 April South of Fiji 6.6 deep sequence may lead to more quakes in the region on 7 May.
A Civil Defence response in New Zealand failed when it took longer to cancel an initial tsunami warning than it would take for a tsunami to reach Northland.
The SW Raoul Island 7.1 was in the same area as the 5 March 2021 Mag 8.1 which had 36 times the energy of the Mag 7.1 and no dangerous tsunami reached New Zealand...
90km SSE Raoul Island 7.1 12.41pm
Mauna Loa 2.1 9.52am 42km + swarm
25 April.
Mentawai 7.1 8.00am
28 April.
South of Fiji 6.6 3;13pm +5.5, 5.5, 4.8, 4.8, 4.6, 4.5

Update. 26 April 3.30pm
Twin Mag 7 quakes have come with the big Kp8 geomagnetic storm.
A deep quake swarm under Mauna Loa has also come with the auroras, indicating an eruption may come with another round of decent spaceweather or sooner.
Mauna Loa has been expanding rapidly since the November 2022 eruption ended.
Volcanos at Latin America, Colombia and Ecuador risk locations are smoking hot but no eruptions yet....time will tell.
Eruptions tend to follow quakes during forecast periods.
The 24-25 April Kp8 geomagnetic storm driving the action has ended.
Weak residual spaceweather may arrive 27-28 April.
Isolated late quake action is possible or more likely eruptions.
The forecast period is extended to 27 April.
East Java, Bali, Lombok are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
24 April.
90km SSE Raoul Island 7.1 12.41pm
Mauna Loa 2.1 9.52am 42km + swarm
25 April.
Mentawai 7.1 8.00am

Forecast. 24-25 April 2023.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are East of Pangai, New Britain, Bismarck Sea, Eastern Papua New Guinea, Molucca Sea, Mentawai, Offshore Kyushu, Offshore Kamchatka, Alaska Peninsula, Nicaragua, Valparaiso.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Ambae, Kamchatka, Fuego, Rincon de la Vieja, Nevado del Ruiz, Sangay, Mauna Loa, Kilauea.
The period may be volcanic.
A moderate Earth directed coronal mass ejection may bring Kp6 geomagnetic storms during the period.