Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 24 April 2023 - 3 May 2023

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The strongest geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 25 got to Kp8 for a day and was accompanied by a very strong quake period.
Auroras, quakes, weather shifts go together.
A strong Porangahau quake swarm has followed the 24 April Kermadecs 7.1.
Several other quake risk locations have been active.
The addition of Northern Cook Strait to risk locations on 26 April was justified on 29 April with the Cook Strait 3.9.
Unexpected location success on 27 April from low confidence Hunter River risk location.
A subtropical low weather system formed with the 24-25 April aurora and has moved over New Zealand bringing more heavy rain.
A new forecast period is due early 7 May. SW Pacific including New Zealand are likely high risk locations.
24 April.
Waipukurau 3.9 7.06am
70km NW D'Urville Island 3.8 9.59pm
25 April.
20km NE Waipukurau 3.7 9.46pm
26 April.
30km E. Puysegur Point 4.1 5.25am
Porangahau 5.4 10.16am USGS, EMSC (Geonet 5.9)
10km NW Porangahau 5.2 10.19am USGS, EMSC (Geonet 5.4)
5km NW Porangahau 4.3 10.28am
27 April.
Ahuriri River 4.2 11.22am
28 April.
30km SW Taumarunui 4.4 1.03am
29 April.
Cook Strait/20km W. Wellington 3.9 12.50pm
2 May.
Lower Cascade River 4.2 4.39am

Update. 28 April 12.00am
Great location success from low confidence risk location Hunter River at nearby Ahruriri River.
Forecasting quakes is easier when geomagnetic storms are stronger, giving a sharper tectonic response.
A weak residual coronal mass ejection and a weak coronal hole windstream due to arrive on 28 April may create a brief quake uptick.
A subtropical low has formed near New Caledonia on 25 April along with the Kp8 geomagnetic storm.
The forecast period is extended to 28 April.
27 April.
Ahuriri River 4.2 11.22am

Update. 26 April 3.00pm
Auroras and quakes go together.
The big Kp8 geomagnetic storm has brought a strong tectonic response in the Kermadec Islands and New Zealand.
Quakes were just below Mag 4 on 24 April during the big geomagnetic storm with early action at Waipukurau.
The 24 April 12.41pm Kermadecs 7.1 indicated more action in the region was possible.
Plenty more action today near Puysegur Point and Porangahau risk locations.
The geomagnetic storm driving all the action has ended although some weak residual spaceweather may arrive 27-28 April.
Residual quakes are possible 26-28 April.
Mana, Kapiti, Blenheim, Awatere Valley, Seddon are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
24 April.
Waipukurau 3.9 7.06am
70km NW D'Urville Island 3.8 9.59pm
25 April.
20km NE Waipukurau 3.7 9.46pm
26 April.
30km E. Puysegur Point 4.1 5.25am
Porangahau 5.4 10.16am USGS, EMSC (Geonet 5.9)
10km NW Porangahau 5.2 10.19am USGS, EMSC (Geonet 5.4)
5km NW Porangahau 4.3 10.28am

Forecast. 24-25 April 2023.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Whakatane, Kawerau, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Turakirae Head, Cape Palliser, Cape Campbell, North of D'Urville Island, South of Wanganui, Murchison, Christchurch, Rolleston, Hunter River, Offshore Milford, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Puysegur Point.
Volcanos quiet.
A moderate Earth directed coronal mass ejection is arriving at Earth as this forecast is posted.
Kp6 geomagnetic storms are possible next 2 days.