Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 7 May 2023 - 9 May 2023

Click to Enlarge

A strong but brief Kp6 geomagnetic storm began the quake period with good quake results East of East Cape.
Two very weak coronal hole windstreams arrived on cue 7 and 8 May, creating brief Kp4 geomagnetic conditions.
The period has dragged out until 9 May with quakes barely but noticeably reaching Mag 4.
Local seismologists unsurprisingly announced a slow slip quake evolution at Porangahau, following the Anzac storm, Kermadecs 7.1 and Porangahau 5.4, 5.2 quakes.
An M1 long duration flare and strong coronal mass ejection from Earth facing sunspot 3296 is due late 9 May and likely to produce another strong but brief Kp8 aurora.
New Zealand is high risk for high magnitude 5+ quakes during the period.
A new forecast for 10 May is being processed.
6 May.
East of East Cape 4.7 6.03am USGS
East of East Cape 3.9 10.18pm
8 May.
20km West of Kapiti Island 3.9 11.26pm
9 May.
Atiamuri 3.9 2.43am
Upper Esk River 4.1 2.43am

Update. 7 May 12.00pm
6 May.
East of East Cape 3.9 10.18pm
A strong but brief Kp6 geomagnetic storm has arrived on cue.
Solar wind was relatively moderate for a Kp6 storm.
The defining factor for such strong conditions is once again the very high -15nT magnetic flux density at ACE satellite, indicating Earth's weakening magnetic field isn't deflecting solar wind as much as it used to.
The coronal hole windstream driving the Kp6 conditions has quickly faded today although more solar wind from nearby Coronal Hole 1145 and a possible Earth directed filament eruption may arrive later today.
Earth facing sunspot region 3296 has been seat of most action and could flare again next few days.
No significant quake action from the brief storm although new spaceweather later today may create a quake uptick.
The recent Mag 6 deep quake series of South of Fiji/Louisville makes SW Pacific higher risk during the period.

Forecast. 7-8 May 2023.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Northeast of White Island, South of Gisborne.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Whakatane, Offshore East Cape, Tokomaru Bay, Napier, Hastings, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Seddon, Cape Campbell, Milford Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau.
Volcanos quiet.
Spaceweather has arrived as this forecast is posted.