Aotearoa Summary Updated. 10 May 2023 - 21 May 2023
More South Island centered action has followed on from the last forecast period. Quakes tend to remain active in forecast risk locations for several days after the forecast period ends. Solar flares from active sunspot 3311 have driven the 19 May 2.57pm East of New Caledonia 7.7. The 20 May quakes have come with unforecasted Kp5 storms from a solar filament eruption on 17 May. A new forecast period is likely from 25 May. 19 May. 50km NW D'Urville Island 4.2 5.09am East of New Caledonia 7.7 2.57pm 20 May. East of New Caledonia 7.1 2.57pm East of New Caledonia 6.5 2.09pm 15km NW Blenheim 4.1 10.57pm Summary. 18 May. Two coronal mass ejections from reverse polarity sunspot 3296 arrived on cue but were magnetically north aligned and never connected properly with Earth's magnetic field. Brief periods of Kp5 geomagnetic storms brought some Southern Alps action. The only Mag 6 Pacific quake during the period, the Northern Tonga 7.6 occurred during the first storm. South Island quakes dominated during and after the forecast period. The forecast successfully chased Southern Alps action. Quakes were spread out for several days after the period ended and great location success at Edwards River, near to where the Coast to Coasters come out of the mountain run at the highway. The forecast rule that risk locations sometimes remain active for several days after a forecast period ends has held again. Lowering the outlook for the second CME to Kp5 was justified. Possibly the reverse polarity of the sunspot played a part in the weak magnetic connection. A powerful sunspot is on the east horizon and likely to be the seat of the next forecast from about 24 May. Indian Ocean tropical cyclone Mocha formed on 11 May, powering up to Cat5 as it crossed the Myanmar coast. 11 May. Northern Tonga/Hihifo 7.6 4.02am Lake Tekapo 3.5 4.38am 17 May. Haupiri 4.6 8.39am Haupiri 4.4 8/42am 18 May. Lower Edwards River 3.9 10.04am Update. 11 May 12.00pm Northern Tonga/Hihifo 7.6 4.02am Lake Tekapo 3.5 4.38am Spaceweather arrived on cue at 11.00am on 10 May but never made it past Kp5 moderate geomagnetic storm level. The magnetic connection was poor despite a strong coronal mass ejection shock. Earth's magnetic field wasn't aligned to the magnetic field of the solar wind, Bz magnetic flux density mostly north directed. The moderate spaceweather has brought a 200km deep Northern Tonga 7.6 quake, followed 36 minutes later by a moderate Tekapo 3.5. No direct location success at Tekapo but the forecast is chasing several other Southern Alps risk locations. Weather was poor across New Zealand for aurora viewing with snow in the South Island and thunderstorms in the North Island. A second coronal mass ejection from very active sunspot 3296 is due early 12 May, bringing more auroras. Magnetic connection from the solar shock may be weak again because it has come from the same sunspot which is unusually a reverse polarity sunspot. A strong connection could bring Kp8 storms, weak connection Kp5. The forecast period is extended to 13 May. Mag 6 New Zealand is possible. Update. 10 May 11.00am The forecasted solar storm is arriving at ACE satellite as this update is posted. Another M7 flare and coronal mass ejection from near Earth facing sunspot 3296 has occurred this morning. A prolonged Kp8 geomagnetic storm is likely next few days. All forecasted risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged. Forecast. 10-11 May 2023. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Te Kaha, Whakatane, Kawerau, East of East Cape, Tokomaru Bay, South of Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Kapiti, Northern Cook Strait, Taupo, Tapuaenuku, Awatere Valley, Cass, Lake Coleridge, Upper Hokitika River, Cascade River, Pyke River, Milford Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Matawai, Cape Campbell, Ward, St Arnaud, Taumarunui, South of Wanganui, North of D'Urville Island, Ahuriri River. Volcanos quiet. A brief Kp8 geomagnetic storm is possible early 10 May following a M1 long duration flare and filament eruption from Earth facing sunspot 3296. Watch out for auroras. Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand. Confidence = low. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
